Simon Cauchemez*† , Pierre-Yves Boëlle*†‡, Christl A. Donnelly§, Neil M Ferguson§, Guy Thomas*†‡, Gabriel M. Leung¶, Anthony J Hedley¶, Roy M. Anderson§, and Alain-Jacques Valleron*†‡
Author affiliations: *Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Paris, France; †Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; ‡Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France; §Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; ¶University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Figure 2. Average expectation of the temporal pattern of Rt after implementation of control measures according to the day T of the last observation. A) Completely effective control measures. B) Limited control measures. Simulation values of R are also given: before day 20, R = 3; after day 20 R = 0 (A) and R = 0.7 (B). The gray zone indicates that R is <1. Information that the average expectation of R has passed <1 was obtained 9 (A) and 12 (B) days after control measures were implemented.
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