Volume 13, Number 6—June 2007
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Spatial Analysis of the Feed Industry
|Model||Estimations of β||Prediction interval||Odds ratio†|
|0||DIC = 1596|
|1||ΔDIC = -5.0||[–1.243, –0.116]|
|[ 0.091, 2.562], p = 0.017||3.8|
|2||ΔDIC = –1.0||[–0.8 , 0.131]|
|[–0.674, 2.230], p = 0.145||n.s.|
|3||ΔDIC = –3.0||[–1.315, -0.094]|
|[ 0.01, 2.686], p = 0.035||3.7|
|[–1.456, 1.683], p = 0.438||n.s.|
*λi,parameter of the Poisson distribution for area i; ei expected number of bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases for area i; β, set of regression parameters to link the relative risk to the covariates; ui, spatial component of smoothing for area i; MBM, meat-and-bone meal; FAT, animal fat; n.s., not significant. Variations of the deviance information criterion (ΔDIC) were calculated in comparison with the DIC value of model 0. The 95% prediction intervals were based on the quantiles of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sample.
†Odds ratio was computed as exp(β); it compares the bovine spongiform encephalopathy risk for a 100% difference in the use of MBM in the area.