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Volume 13, Number 6—June 2007

Research

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Spatial Analysis of the Feed Industry

Mathilde Paul*, David Abrial*, Nathalie Jarrige†, Stéphane Rican‡, Myriam Garrido*, Didier Calavas†, and Christian Ducrot*Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: *Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Saint Genès Champanelle, France; †Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Aliments (AFSSA), Lyon, France; ‡Université Nanterre Paris X, Paris, France

Main Article

Table

Estimations of regression parameters of the disease mapping model with covariates meat-and-bone meal and animal fat*

Model Estimations of β Prediction interval Odds ratio†
0 
DIC = 1596
1 
ΔDIC = -5.0 [–1.243, –0.116]
[ 0.091, 2.562], p = 0.017 3.8
2 
ΔDIC = –1.0 [–0.8 , 0.131]
[–0.674, 2.230], p = 0.145 n.s.
3 
ΔDIC = –3.0 [–1.315, -0.094]
[ 0.01, 2.686], p = 0.035 3.7
[–1.456, 1.683], p = 0.438 n.s.

*λi,parameter of the Poisson distribution for area i; ei expected number of bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases for area i; β, set of regression parameters to link the relative risk to the covariates; ui, spatial component of smoothing for area i; MBM, meat-and-bone meal; FAT, animal fat; n.s., not significant. Variations of the deviance information criterion (ΔDIC) were calculated in comparison with the DIC value of model 0. The 95% prediction intervals were based on the quantiles of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sample.
†Odds ratio was computed as exp(β); it compares the bovine spongiform encephalopathy risk for a 100% difference in the use of MBM in the area.

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