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Volume 14, Number 10—October 2008

Research

Estimating Community Incidence of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga Toxin–producing Escherichia coli Infections, Australia

Gillian HallComments to Author , Keflemariam Yohannes, Jane Raupach, Niels Becker, and Martyn Kirk
Author affiliations: Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia (G. Hall); Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra, Australia (K. Yohannes, M. Kirk,); Department of Health, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (J. Raupach); National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (G. Hall, N. Becker);

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Table 4

Severity-specific underreporting for salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and STEC infections*

Condition/severity category Symptom multiplier† (95% CrI) No. reported cases in severity category, in hundreds (95% CrI) No. cases in the community for every 100 reported‡ (95% CrI)
Salmonellosis
With blood
   1–2 d 11.39 (8.49–16.36) 1 (0–3) 12.7 (0.8–32.1)
   3–4 d 2.82 (2.17–3.98) 7 (5–10) 19.9 (12.6–30.9)
   > 5 d 1.81 (1.33–2.72) 42 (37–47) 76.6 (54.3–116.0)
Without blood
   1–2 d 143.29 (83.30–371.0) 2 (1–4) 282.6 (50.4–870.3)
   3–4 d 13.06 (6.37–67.83) 7 (5–10) 91.8 (40.3–533.5)
   >5 d 3.93 (2.10–11.92) 41 (36–46) 160.8 (85.8–513.8)
Overall 100 695 (399–1,643)
Campylobacteriosis
With blood
   1–2 d 12.40 (9.16–17.82) 2(1–3) 24.8 (16.3–38.6)
   3–4 d 3.06 (2.32–4.33) 8(6, 10) 24.3 (15.8–36.9)
   >5 d 1.97 (1.42–2.95) 34 (31, 37) 67.92 (48.5–106.3)
Without blood
   1–2 d 154.17 (89.31–397.59) 3 (2–4) 475.7 (250.6–1,234.3)
   3–4 d 14.15 (6.80–73.32) 10 (8–12) 139.0 (68.7–739.7)
   >5 d 4.25 (2.25–13.36) 43 (40–46) 183.4 (97.9–578.1)
Overall 100 1001 (664–2,251)
STEC in South Australia
With blood
   1–2 d 13.02 (9.50–18.37) 0 0
   3–4 d 3.13 (2.36–4.45) 18 (6–30) 51.6 (16.2–101.2)
   >5 d 2.02 (1.47–3.04) 68 (50–87) 123.5 (74.9–212.9)
Without blood
   1–2 d 157.18 (61.67–218.75) 3 (1–5) 432.5 (142.4–1,220.1)
   3–4 d 14.35 (7.38–64.34) 6(1–11) 78.0 (13.6–400.1)
   >5 d 4.31 (2.27–13.44) 6 (1–11) 2-3.0 (2.67–91.7)
Overall 13.02 (9.50–18.37) 100 815 (330–7,514)

*STEC, Shiga toxin–producing Esherichia coli.
†Number of cases in the community for every notification.
‡Product of previous 2 columns.

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