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Volume 15, Number 10—October 2009

Dispatch

Excess Deaths and Immunoprotection during 1918–1920 Influenza Pandemic, Taiwan

Ying-Hen HsiehComments to Author 
Author affiliation: China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan

Main Article

Table 1

Excess all-cause deaths of Taiwanese and Japanese persons during 2 influenza epidemic waves in Taiwan, 1918–1920*

Time period Observed no. deaths Expected
no. deaths† SD Excess no. deaths (95% CI) Excess no. deaths, by wave‡ (95% CI)
First wave
1918 Oct§ 8,725 8,366 489 359 (0–1,337)¶ 24,907
(21,426–29,008)
1918 Nov 23,156 8,042 768 15,114 (13,578–16,650)
1918 Dec
17,658
8,224
793
9,434 (7,848–11,021)
Second wave
1919 Dec§ 9,319 8,224 793 1,095 (0–2,682)¶ 26,141
(20,572–32,845)
1920 Jan 23,906 8,478 973 15,429 (13,482–17,375)
1920 Feb 16,466 7,466 955 9,001 (7,090–10,911)
1920 Mar§ 8,625 8,009 630 616 (0–1,877)¶

*CI, confidence interval.
†Expected monthly no. deaths was computed from mean no. deaths for that month during 1916–1922, excluding the epidemic month. Total excess no. deaths for these 2 periods = 51,048 (95% CI 41,998–61,853).
‡Including the excess no. deaths in adjacent months.
§Excess no. deaths for these months are not statistically significant (i.e., not >2 SD above mean).
¶Max (0, lower bound).

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