Evidence-based Tool for Triggering School Closures during Influenza Outbreaks, Japan
Asami Sasaki , Anne Gatewood Hoen, Al Ozonoff, Hiroshi Suzuki, Naohito Tanabe, Nao Seki, Reiko Saito, and John S. Brownstein
Author affiliations: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (A. Sasaki); University of Niigata Prefecture, Niigata, Japan (A. Sasaki); Children’s Hospital, Boston (A. Gatewood Hoen, J.S. Brownstein); Harvard Medical School, Boston (A. Gatewood Hoen, J.S. Brownstein); Boston University School of Public Health, Boston (A. Ozonoff); Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata (H. Suzuki, N. Tanabe, N. Seki, R. Saito)
Figure 2. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for detection of influenza outbreak by 1%–9% thresholds under single-day, double-day, triple-day scenarios. ROC space is defined on the x axis as 1 – specificity and on the y axis as sensitivity. The area under the curve (AUC) is an indicator of the quality of a model; larger AUC values corresponded to better performance. Optimal thresholds for the 3 scenarios are *single-day, 5%; †double-day, 4%; and ‡triple-day, 3%.
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