Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Evidence-based Tool for Triggering School Closures during Influenza Outbreaks, Japan

Asami Sasaki

, Anne Gatewood Hoen, Al Ozonoff, Hiroshi Suzuki, Naohito Tanabe, Nao Seki, Reiko Saito, and John S. Brownstein

Author affiliations: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (A. Sasaki); University of Niigata Prefecture, Niigata, Japan (A. Sasaki); Children’s Hospital, Boston (A. Gatewood Hoen, J.S. Brownstein); Harvard Medical School, Boston (A. Gatewood Hoen, J.S. Brownstein); Boston University School of Public Health, Boston (A. Ozonoff); Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata (H. Suzuki, N. Tanabe, N. Seki, R. Saito)

Main Article

Figure 2

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for detection of influenza outbreak by 1%–9% thresholds under single-day, double-day, triple-day scenarios. ROC space is defined on the x axis as 1 – specificity and on the y axis as sensitivity. The area under the curve (AUC) is an indicator of the quality of a model; larger AUC values corresponded to better performance. Optimal thresholds for the 3 scenarios are *single-day, 5%; †double-day, 4%; and ‡triple-day, 3%.

Figure 2. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for detection of influenza outbreak by 1%–9% thresholds under single-day, double-day, triple-day scenarios. ROC space is defined on the x axis as 1 – specificity and on the y axis as sensitivity. The area under the curve (AUC) is an indicator of the quality of a model; larger AUC values corresponded to better performance. Optimal thresholds for the 3 scenarios are *single-day, 5%; †double-day, 4%; and ‡triple-day, 3%.

Main Article

Top of Page

The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.