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Volume 19, Number 11—November 2013
Research

Capture–Recapture Method for Estimating Annual Incidence of Imported Dengue, France, 2007–2010

Guy La RucheComments to Author , Dominique Dejour-Salamanca, Pascale Bernillon, Isabelle Leparc-Goffart, Martine Ledrans, Alexis Armengaud, Monique Debruyne, Gérard-Antoine Denoyel, Ségolène Brichler, Laetitia Ninove, Philippe Desprès, and Marc Gastellu-Etchegorry
Author affiliations: Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Saint-Maurice, France (G. La Ruche, D. Dejour-Salamanca, P. Bernillon, M. Gastellu-Etchegorry); Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, Marseille, France (I. Leparc-Goffart); Cellule de l'Institut de Veille Sanitaire aux Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique, France (M. Ledrans); Cellule de l'Institut de Veille Sanitaire Sud, Marseille (A. Armengaud); Cerba Laboratory, Saint-Ouen l’Aumone, France (M. Debruyne); Biomnis Laboratory, Lyon, France (G.-A. Denoyel); Avicenne University Hospital, Bobigny, France (S. Brichler); Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée-Infection, Marseille (L. Ninove); Institut Pasteur National Reference Laboratory for Arboviruses, Paris, France (P. Desprès)

Main Article

Table 4

Number of dengue cases estimated from mandatory notification and laboratory network surveillance systems with Chao estimator after stratification according to geographic area and period of the year, metropolitan France, in 2010 and for 2007–2010*

Stratification type, Y No. observed cases
 Estimated total no. cases (95% CI) Completeness of MN, % (95% CI) Completeness of LN, % (95% CI) Combined completeness, % (95% CI)
With MN With LN Common cases
Geographic stratification
2010
Southeast 97 229 80 332 (302–378) 29.2 (25.0–32.5) 69.0 (59.0–76.8) 74.1 (63.4–82.5)
Other areas 488 1,896 349 4,071 (3,791–4,396) 12.0 (11.1–12.9) 46.6 (43.1–50.0) 50.0 (46.2–53.8)
Total 585 2,125 429 4,403 (4,120–4,730) 13.3 (12.3–14.2) 48.3 (44.8–51.6) 51.8 (48.1–55.4)
2007–2010
Southeast 113 320 93 558 (475–691) 20.3 (16.3–23.8) 57.3 (46.3–67.3) 60.9 (49.2–71.5)
Other areas 660 2,847 449 7,684 (6,896–8,632) 8.6 (7.6–9.6) 37.1 (32.9–41.2) 39.8 (35.3–44.3)
Total
 773
 3,167
 542
 8,242 (7,446–9,194)
 9.4 (8.4–10.4)
 38.4 (34.4–42.5)
 41.2 (37.0–45.6)
Period stratification
2010
May–Nov† 524 1,694 386 3,186 (2,994–3,410) 16.4 (15.3–17.5) 53.2 (49.6–56.6) 57.5 (53.6–61.3)
Remainder of year 61 431 43 1,407 (1,118–1,821) 4.3 (3.2–5.6) 30.6 (22.9–39.6) 31.9 (23.8–41.2)
Total 585 2,125 429 4,594 (4,223–5,034) 12.7 (11.4–13.9) 46.3 (41.5–50.4) 49.7 (44.6–54.1)
2007–2010
May–Nov 656 2,325 468 5,263 (4,764–5,873) 12.5 (11.4–13.9) 44.2 (39.6–48.8) 47.7 (42.8–52.8)
Remainder of year 117 865 74 3,416 (2,761–4,303) 3.4 (2.7–4.2) 25.3 (20.1–31.3) 26.6 (21.1–32.9)
Total
 773
 3,190
 542
 8,679 (7,817–9,709)
 8.9 (8.0–9.9)
 36.8 (32.9–40.8)
 39.4 (35.2–43.8)
*MN, mandatory notification; LN, laboratory network; information on geographic area or period of the year was not available for 27 cases. Southeast includes the departments (administrative regions) where the competent vector, the Aedes albopictus mosquito, was established. 
†May–Nov is the period of activity of Ae. albopictus mosquitoes in metropolitan France.
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Main Article

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