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Volume 19, Number 4—April 2013

Research

Predicting Hotspots for Influenza Virus Reassortment

Trevon L. FullerComments to Author , Marius Gilbert, Vincent Martin, Julien Cappelle, Parviez Hosseini, Kevin Y. Njabo, Soad Abdel Aziz, Xiangming Xiao, Peter Daszak, and Thomas B. Smith
Author affiliations: University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA (T.L. Fuller, K.Y. Njabo, T.B. Smith); Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium (M. Gilbert); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Beijing, People’s Republic of China (V. Martin); Centre de Cooperation International en Recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement, Montpellier, France (J. Cappelle); EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York, USA (P. Hosseini, P. Daszak); National Laboratory for Quality Control on Poultry Production, Dokki, Giza, Egypt (S.A. Aziz); University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA (X. Xiao)

Main Article

Table

Effect of environmental variables on occurrence of influenza virus subtypes*

Location, subtype (data source)
Coefficient
SE
p value
China
Subtype H3N2
Intercept −5.184 0.946 8.7 × 10−8
Human population 9.47 × 10−4 3.23 × 10−4 4.47 × 10−2
Percentage urban 0.113 0.117 0.284
Precipitation 4.59 × 10−3 8.87 × 10−3 0.573
Temperature 1.24 × 10−2 8.27 × 10−3 0.195
Subtype H5N1 (surveillance dataset)
Intercept −7.93 1.66 3.01 × 10−5
Chicken density −6.94 × 10−2 0.438 0.572
Duck density 1.53 0.433 3.45 × 10−3
Human population 1.41 × 10−3 2.85 × 10−4 1.77 × 10−4
Percentage agriculture 2.18 × 10−4 1.52 × 10−4 0.218
Percentage water 7.32 × 10−2 1.7 × 10−2 2.36 × 10−3
Subtype H5N1 (outbreak dataset)
Intercept −9.24 1.14 3.15 × 10−12
Chicken density 1.24 0.277 2.87 × 10−4
Duck density 0.542 0.24 0.117
Human population 1.37 × 10−3 2.67 × 10−4 1.41 × 10−3
Percentage agriculture 2.13 × 10−4 8.84 × 10−5 5.4 × 10−2
Percentage water 0.101 1.91 × 10−2 4.53 × 10−3
Egypt
Subtype H5N1
Intercept 1.83 0.516 4 × 10−4
Poultry density 7.86 × 10−4 2.31 × 10−4 7 × 10−4
Human population 3.36 × 10−2 6.49 × 10−2 0.605
Percentage water
0.752
0.41
6.64 × 10−2
*Boldface indicates p<0.05.

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