Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
Hoang Quoc Cuong, Nguyen Thanh Vu, Bernard Cazelles, Maciej F. Boni, Khoa T.D. Thai, Maia A. Rabaa, Luong Chan Quang, Cameron P. Simmons, Tran Ngoc Huu, and Katherine L. Anders
Author affiliations: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (H.Q. Cuong, M.F. Boni, K.T.D. Thai, C.P. Simmons, K.L. Anders); Pasteur Institute, Ho Chi Minh City (H.Q. Cuong, N.T. Vu, L.C. Quang, T.N. Huu); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (M.F. Boni, C.P. Simmons, K.L. Anders); Unités Mixtes de Recherche, Paris, France (B. Cazelles); L'Unité Mixte Internationale, Bondy, France (B. Cazelles); University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (K.T.D. Thai); Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA (M.A. Rabaa); Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (K.L. Anders)
Figure 7. . Dry season dengue incidence as a predictor of the magnitude of the subsequent dengue epidemic. Plots show the association between annual epidemic incidence (April–December) and the preceding dry season dengue incidence (January–March). For Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), these definitions were a priori shifted 1 month later (May–January and February–April, respectively) because of the consistently later occurrence of the dengue epidemic season in HCMC. Each point represents 1 province (A) or district (B) and year, correlating the standard deviation from mean incidence in the rainy season against the standard deviation from mean incidence in the preceding dry season, in the same province or district. The solid line shows fitted values from a linear model of epidemic incidence against dry season incidence. We excluded 71 data points from the district analysis (B) because there were no dengue cases during the dry season.
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