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Volume 5, Number 3—June 1999


The Cost Effectiveness of Vaccinating against Lyme Disease

Martin I. MeltzerComments to Author , David T. Dennis, and Kathleen A. Orloski
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Main Article

Table 1

Probabilities and their statistical distributions

Item Values Type of distributiona
Probability of contracting LDb 0.005, 0.01, 0.03 Fixed intervalsc
Effectiveness of vaccine 0.85 Fixed
Probability of early detection of LD 0.6 - 0.9 Fixed intervalscd
Probability of sequelaee if detect LD early
Cardiac 0 - 0.01 Uniformf
Neurologic 0 - 0.02 Uniformf
Arthritic 0.02-0.05-0.07 Triangularg
Case resolved Residualh N/A
Probability of sequelae if do not detect LD early
Cardiac 0.02-0.03-0.06 Triangular
Neurologic 0.02-0.15-0.17 Triangular
Arthritic 0.5-0.6-0.62 Triangular
Case resolved Residualh N/A

aStatistical distribution used in Monte Carlo simulations (14-16).
bLD = Lyme disease.
cIterations are run by using different combinations of the probabilities of infection and cost of treatment (Table 2).
dThe interval between the minimum and the maximum is divided into 0.1 increments.
eSee text for description of sequelae.
fUniform distribution implies that there is an equal chance that any number between, and including, the minimum and maximum will be used for a given iteration.
gTriangular distribution is defined by points of minimum, most likely, and maximum.
hThe probability of an LD case being successfully resolved (i.e., no further sequelae) is 1 - (sum of the probabilities of cardiac + neurologic + arthritic symptoms).

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