Volume 5, Number 3—June 1999
Perspective
The Cost Effectiveness of Vaccinating against Lyme Disease
, David T. Dennis, and Kathleen A. OrloskiTable 1
Probabilities and their statistical distributions
| Item | Values | Type of distributiona |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of contracting LDb | 0.005, 0.01, 0.03 | Fixed intervalsc |
| Effectiveness of vaccine | 0.85 | Fixed |
| Probability of early detection of LD | 0.6 - 0.9 | Fixed intervalscd |
| Probability of sequelaee if detect LD early | ||
| Cardiac | 0 - 0.01 | Uniformf |
| Neurologic | 0 - 0.02 | Uniformf |
| Arthritic | 0.02-0.05-0.07 | Triangularg |
| Case resolved | Residualh | N/A |
| Probability of sequelae if do not detect LD early | ||
| Cardiac | 0.02-0.03-0.06 | Triangular |
| Neurologic | 0.02-0.15-0.17 | Triangular |
| Arthritic | 0.5-0.6-0.62 | Triangular |
| Case resolved | Residualh | N/A |
aStatistical distribution used in Monte Carlo simulations (14-16).
bLD = Lyme disease.
cIterations are run by using different combinations of the probabilities of infection and cost of treatment (Table 2).
dThe interval between the minimum and the maximum is divided into 0.1 increments.
eSee text for description of sequelae.
fUniform distribution implies that there is an equal chance that any number between, and including, the minimum and maximum will be used for a given iteration.
gTriangular distribution is defined by points of minimum, most likely, and maximum.
hThe probability of an LD case being successfully resolved (i.e., no further sequelae) is 1 - (sum of the probabilities of cardiac + neurologic + arthritic symptoms).
