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Volume 8, Number 1—January 2002


Using a Dynamic Hydrology Model To Predict Mosquito Abundances in Flood and Swamp Water

Jeffrey ShamanComments to Author , Marc Stieglitz, Colin Stark, Sylvie Le Blancq, and Mark Cane
Author affiliations: Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA;

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Table 3

Logistic regression equations, Great Swamp site, p <0.0001a

Mosquito Probability of a mass emergence
Aedes vexans p(128 Ae. vexans) = (1+exp(4.701 - 0.00804≥ILW))-1
Anopheles walkeri p(≥32 An. walkeri) = (1+exp(6.362 - 0.0116≥ILW))-1
Culex pipiens p(≥32 Cx. pipiens) = (1+exp(-0.353 + 0.00989≥ILW))-1

aEquations for the probability of mass emergence (≥128 Ae. vexans; ≥32 An. walkeri; 32 or more Cx. pipiens) mosquitoes) 10 days later, based on logistic regression analysis. The ILW was constructed for a depth of 0 m. Model fits are significant at p <0.0001 based on a likelihood-ratio test.

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