Volume 8, Number 1—January 2002
Perspective
Using a Dynamic Hydrology Model To Predict Mosquito Abundances in Flood and Swamp Water
Jeffrey Shaman
, Marc Stieglitz, Colin Stark, Sylvie Le Blancq, and Mark Cane
, Marc Stieglitz, Colin Stark, Sylvie Le Blancq, and Mark CaneTable 3
Logistic regression equations, Great Swamp site, p <0.0001a
| Mosquito | Probability of a mass emergence |
|---|---|
| Aedes vexans | p(128 Ae. vexans) = (1+exp(4.701 - 0.00804≥ILW))-1 |
| Anopheles walkeri | p(≥32 An. walkeri) = (1+exp(6.362 - 0.0116≥ILW))-1 |
| Culex pipiens | p(≥32 Cx. pipiens) = (1+exp(-0.353 + 0.00989≥ILW))-1 |
aEquations for the probability of mass emergence (≥128 Ae. vexans; ≥32 An. walkeri; 32 or more Cx. pipiens) mosquitoes) 10 days later, based on logistic regression analysis. The ILW was constructed for a depth of 0 m. Model fits are significant at p <0.0001 based on a likelihood-ratio test.
