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Volume 26, Number 8—August 2020
Research Letter

Estimation of Coronavirus Disease Case-Fatality Risk in Real Time

Yang GeComments to Author  and Shengzhi SunComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA (Y. Ge); Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (S. Sun)

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Figure

Progression of coronavirus disease outbreak and changes in the case-fatality risk by crude and adjusted rates. Crude case-fatality risk is the cumulative number of deaths on a given day divided by the cumulative number of cases on the same day. We set the infectious period as 10 days (2); case-fatality risk as 3% (3); basic reproductive ratio (R0) as 2.5 (4); recovery rate as 1/13 day (5), that is, 13 days from illness onset to recovery; and the population size as 1 million. A) Changes in the nu

Figure. Progression of coronavirus disease outbreak and changes in the case-fatality risk by crude and adjusted rates. Crude case-fatality risk is the cumulative number of deaths on a given day divided by the cumulative number of cases on the same day. We set the infectious period as 10 days (2); case-fatality risk as 3% (3); basic reproductive ratio (R0) as 2.5 (4); recovery rate as 1/13 day (5), that is, 13 days from illness onset to recovery; and the population size as 1 million. A) Changes in the number of subpopulations over time after the first infection. B) Changes in crude case-fatality risk after 13th day of exposure and aCFR calculated by using Wilson et al.’s method (1) and by using Mizumoto et al.’s method (6). aCFR, adjusted case-fatality risk.

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References
  1. Wilson  N, Kvalsvig  A, Barnard  LT, Baker  MG. Case-fatality risk estimates for COVID-19 calculated by using a lag time for fatality. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26: Epub ahead of print. DOIPubMed
  2. Guan  W-J, Ni  Z-Y, Hu  Y, Liang  W-H, Ou  C-Q, He  J-X, et al.; China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med. 2020;NEJMoa2002032; Epub ahead of print. DOIPubMed
  3. Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. [The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China] [in Chinese]. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020;41:14551.PubMed
  4. Li  Q, Guan  X, Wu  P, Wang  X, Zhou  L, Tong  Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1199207; Epub ahead of print. DOIPubMed
  5. World Health Organization. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). 2020 Feb 24 [cited 2020 Mar 27]. https://www.who.int/docs/default- source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint- mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
  6. Mizumoto  K, Chowell  G. Estimating risk for death from 2019 novel coronavirus disease, China, January–February 2020. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26: Epub ahead of print. DOIPubMed

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Page created: April 21, 2020
Page updated: July 19, 2020
Page reviewed: July 19, 2020
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