Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida

Jeffrey Shaman*

, Jonathan F. Day†, Marc Stieglitz‡, Stephen Zebiak§, and Mark Cane‡

Author affiliations: *Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA; †University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA; ‡Columbia University, New York, New York, USA; §International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York, USA

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Figure 4

a) Best-fit bivariate logistic regression model of epidemic St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission based on the 1986–1991 record. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths (WTD) 11 weeks before transmission and fixed values of current modeled water table depths. b) Best-fit logistic regression model of epidemic SLEV transmission based on the 1978–1997 sentinel chicken record. Only antecedent drought conditions are statistically significant. Plotted for a continuous r

Figure 4. a) Best-fit bivariate logistic regression model of epidemic St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission based on the 1986–1991 record. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths (WTD) 11 weeks before transmission and fixed values of current modeled water table depths. b) Best-fit logistic regression model of epidemic SLEV transmission based on the 1978–1997 sentinel chicken record. Only antecedent drought conditions are statistically significant. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths 16 weeks before transmission.

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