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Volume 11, Number 8—August 2005

Dispatch

Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic

Ran D. Balicer*†Comments to Author , Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†
Author affiliations: *Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel; †Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er-Sheva, Israel

Main Article

Table A6

Cost-benefit ratios when applying combinations of model parameters in a sensitivity analysis

Probability of pandemic Estimates of health-related pandemic outcomes*
Minimum
Base case
Maximum
1/100 y 1/33 y 1/10 y 1/100 y 1/33 y 1/10 y 1/100 y 1/33 y 1/10 y
Strategy
Therapeutic use
All patients 0.71–0.79 2.13–2.37 7.10–7.92 0.73–0.87 2.18–2.62 7.25–8.74 0.74–0.96 2.23–2.88 7.42–9.61
Patients at high risk 0.80–1.21 2.40–3.63 7.99–12.09 0.84–1.50 2.51–4.49 8.36–14.96 0.88–1.74 2.63–5.23 8.76–17.42
Preexposure long-term prophylaxis
Entire population 0.04–0.11 0.13–0.34 0.42–1.13 0.07–0.19 0.21–0.58 0.71–1.92 0.10–0.28 0.30–0.83 1.00–2.76
Patients at high risk 0.04–0.10 0.11–0.30 0.38–1.02 0.07–0.18 0.20–0.55 0.67–1.85 0.10–0.28 0.30–0.83 0.99–2.77
Postexposure short-term prophylaxis 0.18–1.14 0.54–3.42 1.82–11.40 0.30–1.94 0.91–5.81 3.04–19.37 0.43–2.78 1.30–8.35 4.32–27.83

*Base-case estimates refer to the point estimates detailed in Table A1. Minimum and maximum estimates refer to applying minimum and maximum values of health-related outcome measures detailed in Table A1.

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