Volume 12, Number 1—January 2006
Research
Economics of Neuraminidase Inhibitor Stockpiling for Pandemic Influenza, Singapore
Vernon J. Lee*
, Kai Hong Phua†, Mark I. Chen*, Angela Chow‡, Stefan Ma‡, Kee Tai Goh‡, and Yee Sin Leo*
, Kai Hong Phua†, Mark I. Chen*, Angela Chow‡, Stefan Ma‡, Kee Tai Goh‡, and Yee Sin Leo*
Table 2
Cost and outcomes with changes in treatment stockpile*†
| % stockpile | Cost of stockpile (1 cycle, million $) | Overall % untreated influenza cases | % iterations with complete treatment | Lives saved | Overall benefit over no action (million $) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No action | NA | 100 | 0 | Deaths: 1,105 (525, 1,775) | Cost: 1,430 (730, 2,193) |
| 10 | 13.1 | 89.1 | 0 | 49 (18, 108) | 24 (–4, 73) |
| 20 | 26.3 | 42.0 | 0 | 249 (128, 412) | 224 (103, 385) |
| 30 | 39.4 | 9.0 | 15 | 386 (185, 645) | 385 (165, 619) |
| 40 | 52.6 | 0.01 | 55 | 418 (185, 730) | 414 (145, 759) |
| 50 | 65.7 | <0.01 | 90 | 422 (185, 744) | 399 (122, 761) |
| 60 | 78.9 | 0 | 100 | 422 (185, 744) | 376 (98, 743) |
| 70 | 92.0 | 0 | 100 | 422 (185, 744) | 353 (76, 721) |
| 80 | 105.2 | 0 | 100 | 422 (185, 744) | 330 (52, 700) |
| 90 | 118.3 | 0 | 100 | 422 (185, 744) | 307 (26, 676) |
| 100 | 131.4 | 0 | 100 | 422 (185, 744) | 285 (4, 654) |
*Mean values are shown with 5th and 95th percentiles in parentheses; NA, not available.
†All healthcare costs are in 2004 Singapore dollars.
1"Dominate" is a term used in cost-effectiveness analyses and refers to a strategy that is both more efficacious and less costly than another strategy.
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