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Volume 13, Number 4—April 2007

Research

Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic

Michael J. Haber*Comments to Author , Davis K. Shay†, Xiaohong M. Davis†, Rajan Patel‡, Xiaoping Jin†, Eric Weintraub†, Evan Orenstein§, and William W. Thompson†
Author affiliations: *Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; †Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; ‡Amgen, Inc., Thousand Oaks, California, USA; §Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

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Table 4

Effectiveness of confinement of ill persons to their homes, with a 2-d delay and 40% compliance, for differing values of the initial parameters

Parameter % Effectiveness
Illness rates Hospitalization rates Death rates
Rate of withdrawal due to severe symptoms (children/adults)
0.75*/0.50* 0.18 0.27 0.29
0.55/0.30 0.34 0.40 0.41
Relative contact duration when withdrawn due to severe symptoms
0.50* 0.18 0.27 0.29
0.70 0.14 0.21 0.19
Fraction of infected persons having symptoms
0.67* 0.18 0.27 0.29
0.93 0.24 0.24 0.27
Relative infectiousness of non-ill persons
0.50* 0.18 0.27 0.29
0.70 0.19 0.24 0.28

*Values used in the baseline simulation models.

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