Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza
James G. Wood*† , Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡
Author affiliations: *National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; †The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; ‡Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia;
Figure 2. For an epidemic beginning in Sydney, the value of the median time delay, m20, in the presence of travel restrictions applied at a delay of 0–6 weeks (10 and 8 weeks in [A] and [B], respectively). Assumptions are A) reproduction number (R0) = 1.5, constant infectivity profile; B) R0 = 1.5, peaked infectivity profile; C) R0 = 2.5, constant infectivity profile; D) R0 = 2.5, peaked infectivity profile; E) R0 = 3.5, constant infectivity profile; F) R0 = 3.5, peaked infectivity profile. The gray panes cover the periods when the epidemic grows from 20 to 1,000 infected people in Sydney; dotted, dashed, dash-dotted, and solid lines correspond to 99%, 90%, 80% and no travel restrictions, respectively.
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