Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

James G. Wood*†

, Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡

Author affiliations: *National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; †The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; ‡Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia;

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Figure 3

Distributions, based on 10,000 simulations, of the time delay, T20, given reproduction number (R0) = 1.5 and the peaked infectivity function, with 99% travel restrictions imposed in scenario 1 (A) and (B) and scenario 2 (C) and (D). Scenario 1 simulates an epidemic beginning in Sydney and spreading to Melbourne. In scenario 2, the epidemic begins in Darwin and spreads to Sydney. In (A) and (C), the restrictions are imposed after 2 weeks; in (B) and (D), they are imposed after 4 weeks.

Figure 3. Distributions, based on 10,000 simulations, of the time delay, T₂₀, given reproduction number (R₀) = 1.5 and the peaked infectivity function, with 99% travel restrictions imposed in scenario 1 (A) and (B) and scenario 2 (C) and (D). Scenario 1 simulates an epidemic beginning in Sydney and spreading to Melbourne. In scenario 2, the epidemic begins in Darwin and spreads to Sydney. In (A) and (C), the restrictions are imposed after 2 weeks; in (B) and (D), they are imposed after 4 weeks.

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