Volume 13, Number 7—July 2007
Research
Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza
James G. Wood*†
, Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡
, Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡Table 2
No. days for an influenza epidemic beginning in Sydney to total 20 currently infectious cases*
| R0 | Constant infectivity profile† |
Peaked infectivity profile† |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median, d | 90% range, d | Mean, d | Median, d | 90% range, d | Mean, d | |
| 1.5 | 24 | 13–46 | 25.9 | 15 | 8–31 | 16.4 |
| 2.5 | 12 | 8–21 | 13.0 | 8 | 5–14 | 8.4 |
| 3.5 | 9 | 6–14 | 9.5 | 6 | 4–10 | 6.2 |
*R0, reproduction number.
†The constant infectivity profile assumes that a person is equally infectious throughout their infectious period; the peaked infectivity profile assumes that they are most infectious early in the infectious period (see Figure 1, panel C, for the profiles used).
