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Volume 13, Number 7—July 2007


Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

James G. Wood*†Comments to Author , Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡
Author affiliations: *National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; †The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; ‡Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia;

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Table 2

No. days for an influenza epidemic beginning in Sydney to total 20 currently infectious cases*

R0 Constant infectivity profile†
Peaked infectivity profile†
Median, d 90% range, d Mean, d Median, d 90% range, d Mean, d
1.5 24 13–46 25.9 15 8–31 16.4
2.5 12 8–21 13.0 8 5–14 8.4
3.5 9 6–14 9.5 6 4–10 6.2

*R0, reproduction number.
†The constant infectivity profile assumes that a person is equally infectious throughout their infectious period; the peaked infectivity profile assumes that they are most infectious early in the infectious period (see Figure 1, panel C, for the profiles used).

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