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Volume 13, Number 7—July 2007

Research

Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

James G. Wood*†Comments to Author , Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡
Author affiliations: *National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; †The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; ‡Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia;

Main Article

Table 3

Limitations and effects of modeling effects of border control on pandemic influenza, Australia

Limitations Effects
Reproduction number (R0) and infectivity function for pandemic influenza are unknown. Larger R0 and a shorter average time between infections would reduce effectiveness of restrictions.
Further importations not considered. Frequent importations would greatly reduce benefits of internal restrictions for cities with international airports or ports.
Other control measures (pharmaceutical and social distancing) are not considered. Reductions in transmission would increase effectiveness of restrictions.
Heterogeneous mixing and travel patterns are not considered. Heterogeneity could increase or reduce delays in epidemic spread. For example, high transmission among infrequent travelers (e.g., the elderly, children) would make restrictions more effective.
Travel rates and restrictions are based on air-travel volumes alone. Restrictions would prevent no more than 80% of travel if non–air travel remains unrestricted, which would considerably reduce effect of restrictions.
Seasonal variation in travel and transmissibility are not considered. Could lead to less or more effective restrictions if arrival of pandemic is in winter/summer.

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