Volume 13, Number 7—July 2007
Research
Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza
James G. Wood*†
, Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡
, Nasim Zamani†, C. Raina MacIntyre*†, and Niels G. Becker‡Table 3
Limitations and effects of modeling effects of border control on pandemic influenza, Australia
| Limitations | Effects |
|---|---|
| Reproduction number (R0) and infectivity function for pandemic influenza are unknown. | Larger R0 and a shorter average time between infections would reduce effectiveness of restrictions. |
| Further importations not considered. | Frequent importations would greatly reduce benefits of internal restrictions for cities with international airports or ports. |
| Other control measures (pharmaceutical and social distancing) are not considered. | Reductions in transmission would increase effectiveness of restrictions. |
| Heterogeneous mixing and travel patterns are not considered. | Heterogeneity could increase or reduce delays in epidemic spread. For example, high transmission among infrequent travelers (e.g., the elderly, children) would make restrictions more effective. |
| Travel rates and restrictions are based on air-travel volumes alone. | Restrictions would prevent no more than 80% of travel if non–air travel remains unrestricted, which would considerably reduce effect of restrictions. |
| Seasonal variation in travel and transmissibility are not considered. | Could lead to less or more effective restrictions if arrival of pandemic is in winter/summer. |
