Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Detecting Human-to-Human Transmission of Avian Influenza A (H5N1)

Yang Yang*, M. Elizabeth Halloran*†, Jonathan D. Sugimoto*†, and Ira M. Longini*†

Author affiliations: *Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA; †University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA;

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Figure

Schematic of estimation method. An infectious person (in red) infects a susceptible person (in green) in the same household with probability of household secondary attack rate (SAR1) and infects a susceptible person in a different household with probability SAR2. The common infectious source (i.e., avian hosts) infects a susceptible person with probability b per day. The likelihood function is constructed from symptom-onset dates and exposure information to estimate the above parameters

Figure. Schematic of estimation method. An infectious person (in red) infects a susceptible person (in green) in the same household with probability of household secondary attack rate (SAR₁) and infects a susceptible person in a different household with probability SAR₂. The common infectious source (i.e., avian hosts) infects a susceptible person with probability b per day. The likelihood function is constructed from symptom-onset dates and exposure information to estimate the above parameters

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