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Volume 14, Number 10—October 2008

Research

Estimating Community Incidence of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga Toxin–producing Escherichia coli Infections, Australia

Gillian HallComments to Author , Keflemariam Yohannes, Jane Raupach, Niels Becker, and Martyn Kirk
Author affiliations: Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia (G. Hall); Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra, Australia (K. Yohannes, M. Kirk,); Department of Health, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (J. Raupach); National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health (G. Hall, N. Becker);

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Table 3

Probabilities and underreporting factors for each category of duration of diarrhea by blood in stool, for salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and STEC infections*

Condition/predictor symptoms Probability of:
Probability for a case to be reported† 
(95% CrI) Multiplier‡ 
(95% CrI)
(a) Case-patient visiting a doctor (95% CrI) (b) Stool being tested (95% CrI) (c) Positive stool results (95% CrI) (d) Notification by laboratory
Salmonellosis
With blood
1–2 d 0.10 (0.07–0.14) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.98 (0.95–1.00) 1.00 0.09 (0.06–0.12) 11.39 
(8.49–16.36)
3–4 d 0.43 (0.31–0.54) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.98 (0.95–1.00) 1.00 0.36 (0.25–0.46) 2.82 
(2.17–3.98)
>5 d 0.67 (0.46–0.88) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.98 (0.95–1.00) 1.00 0.55 (0.368–0.75) 1.81 
(1.33–2.72)
Without blood
1–2 d 0.10 (0.07–0.14) 0.07 (0.02–0.02) 0.98 (0.95–1.00) 1.00 0.01 (0.003–0.01) 143.29 
(83.30–371.0)
3–4 d 0.43 (0.31–0.54) 0.19 (0.071–0.36) 0.98 (0.95–1.00) 1.00 0.08 (0.010–0.16) 13.06 
(6.37–67.83)
>5 d
0.67 (0.46–0.88)
0.40(0.133–0.67)
0.98 (0.95–1.00)
1.00
0.25 (0.075–0.48)
3.93 
(2.10–11.92)
Campylobacteriosis
With blood
1–2 d 0.10 (0.07–0.14) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.90 (0.85–0.95) 1.00 0.08 (0.056–0.11) 12.40 
(9.16–17.82)
3–4 d 0.43 (0.31–0.54) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.90 (0.85–0.95) 1.00 0.33 (0.231–0.43) 3.06 
(2.32–4.33)
>5 d 0.67 (0.46–0.88) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.90 (0.85–0.95) 1.00 0.51 (0.339– 0.70) 1.97 
(1.42–2.95)
Without blood
1–2 d 0.10 (0.07–0.14) 0.069 (0.02– 0.12) 0.90 (0.85–0.95) 1.00 0.01 (0.002–0.01) 154.17 
(89.31–397.59)
3–4 d 0.43 (0.31–0.54) 0.185 (0.071–0.36) 0.90 (0.85–0.95) 1.00 0.07 (0.009–0.15) 14.15 
(6.80–73.32)
>5 d
0.67 (0.46–0.88)
0.400 (0.133–0.67)
0.90 (0.85–0.95)
1.00
0.24 (0.068–0.44)
4.25 
(2.25–13.36)
STEC in South Australia
With blood
1–2 d 0.10 (0.07–0.14) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 1.00 0.08 (0.0.05–0.11) 13.02 
(9.50–18.37)
3–4 d 0.43 (0.31–0.54) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 1.00 0.32 (0.22–0.42) 3.13 
(2.36–4.45)
>5 d 0.67 (0.46–0.88) 0.85 (0.72–0.98) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 1.00 0.50 (0.33–0.68) 2.02 
(1.47–3.04)
Without blood
1–2 d 0.10 (0.07–0.14) 0.07 (0.02–0.12) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 1.00 0.01 (0.001–0.02) 157.18 
(61.67–218.75)
3–4 d 0.43 (0.31–0.54) 0.19 (0.071–0.36) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 1.00 0.07 (0.01–0.14) 14.35 
(7.38–64.34)
>5 d 0.67 (0.46–0.88) 0.40 (0.133–0.67) 0.88 (0.83–0.93) 1.00 0.23 (0.07–0.44) 4.31 
(2.27–13.44)

*STEC, Shiga toxin–producing Esherichia coli; CrI, credible interval; NF, notification factor.
†NF, product of a × b × c × d.
‡Inverse of NF.

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