Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Sudden Increases in Listeriosis Rates in England and Wales, 2001 and 2003

Benjamin J. Cairns

and Robert J.H. Payne

Author affiliations: University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Figure 2

Monthly listeriosis cases and temperature observations, England and Wales, 1990–2007. The monthly number of listeriosis cases (circles, lower plot) is strongly seasonal, with a close relationship to the monthly mean temperature (solid line, upper plot). Overall listeriosis incidence per month underwent 2 sudden increases, at break points around April 2001 and March 2003. Our fitted statistical model (dashed line, lower plot) provides a close fit to the observed data; the seasonally-adjusted fitt

Figure 2. Monthly listeriosis cases and temperature observations, England and Wales, 1990–2007. The monthly number of listeriosis cases (circles, lower plot) is strongly seasonal, with a close relationship to the monthly mean temperature (solid line, upper plot). Overall listeriosis incidence per month underwent 2 sudden increases, at break points around April 2001 and March 2003. Our fitted statistical model (dashed line, lower plot) provides a close fit to the observed data; the seasonally-adjusted fitted model (solid line, lower plot) shows the large magnitudes of the jumps in the rate of cases at the 2 break points.

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