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Volume 15, Number 6—June 2009

Conference Summary

Materials Available Online Only

Stockpiling Supplies for the Next Influenza Pandemic

Lewis J. RadonovichComments to Author , Paul D. Magalian, Mary Kay Hollingsworth, and Gio Baracco
Author affiliations: North Florida/South Georgia Veterans Health System, Gainesville, Florida, USA (L.J. Radonovich); Miami, Florida, USA (P.D. Magalian); North Florida/South Georgia Veterans Health System, Lake City, Florida, USA (M.K. Hollingsworth); Miami Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, Miami (G. Baracco)

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Table 2

Pandemic influenza surge assumptions and calculations per wave for a 1918-like influenza pandemic*

Assumption/calculationValue
US Department of Health and Human Services assumptions
Total population300,000,000
No. ill90,000,000
No. with outpatient medical care45,000,000
No. hospitalized9,900,000
No. needing ICU1,485,000
No. needing mechanical ventilation745,500
No. deaths
1,903,000
FluSurge assumptions
Average length of non-ICU hospital stay for influenza-related illness, d5
Average length of ICU stay for influenza-related illness, d10
Average length of ventilator use for influenza-related illness, d10
Average % of admitted influenza patients who need ICU care15.0
Average % of admitted influenza patients who need ventilators7.5
Average % of influenza deaths assumed to be hospitalized
70.0
Vital statistics calculations
Attack rate†30.0
% Ill treated as outpatients50.0
% Seeking outpatient care treated as inpatient22.0
% Hospitalized treated in ICU15.0
% Hospitalized needing mechanical ventilation7.5
Influenza-associated case-fatality rate (per 100 cases)2.1

*Adapted from US Health and Human Services pandemic planning assumptions (www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/pandplan.html). ICU, intensive care unit.
†Attack rate, % of persons infected by influenza in a community (assumed to be constant from community to community in our catchment area).

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