Volume 15, Number 6—June 2009
Conference Summary
Materials Available Online Only
Stockpiling Supplies for the Next Influenza Pandemic
Lewis J. Radonovich
, Paul D. Magalian, Mary Kay Hollingsworth, and Gio Baracco
, Paul D. Magalian, Mary Kay Hollingsworth, and Gio BaraccoTable 2
Pandemic influenza surge assumptions and calculations per wave for a 1918-like influenza pandemic*
| Assumption/calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| US Department of Health and Human Services assumptions | |
| Total population | 300,000,000 |
| No. ill | 90,000,000 |
| No. with outpatient medical care | 45,000,000 |
| No. hospitalized | 9,900,000 |
| No. needing ICU | 1,485,000 |
| No. needing mechanical ventilation | 745,500 |
| No. deaths | 1,903,000 |
| FluSurge assumptions | |
| Average length of non-ICU hospital stay for influenza-related illness, d | 5 |
| Average length of ICU stay for influenza-related illness, d | 10 |
| Average length of ventilator use for influenza-related illness, d | 10 |
| Average % of admitted influenza patients who need ICU care | 15.0 |
| Average % of admitted influenza patients who need ventilators | 7.5 |
| Average % of influenza deaths assumed to be hospitalized | 70.0 |
| Vital statistics calculations | |
| Attack rate† | 30.0 |
| % Ill treated as outpatients | 50.0 |
| % Seeking outpatient care treated as inpatient | 22.0 |
| % Hospitalized treated in ICU | 15.0 |
| % Hospitalized needing mechanical ventilation | 7.5 |
| Influenza-associated case-fatality rate (per 100 cases) | 2.1 |
*Adapted from US Health and Human Services pandemic planning assumptions (www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/pandplan.html). ICU, intensive care unit.
†Attack rate, % of persons infected by influenza in a community (assumed to be constant from community to community in our catchment area).
