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Volume 18, Number 5—May 2012


Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China

Hongjie Yu1, Simon Cauchemez1, Christl A. Donnelly, Lei Zhou, Luzhao Feng, Nijuan Xiang, Jiandong Zheng, Min Ye, Yang Huai, Qiaohong Liao, Zhibin Peng, Yunxia Feng, Hui Jiang, Weizhong Yang, Yu Wang, Neil M. FergusonComments to Author , and Zijian Feng
Author affiliations: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of China (H. Yu, L. Zhou, L. Feng, N. Xiang, J. Zheng, M. Ye, Y. Huai, Q. Liao, Z. Peng, Y. Feng, H. Jiang, W. Yang, Y. Wang, Z. Feng); Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (S. Cauchemez, C.A. Donnelly, N.M. Ferguson)

Main Article

Table 3

Potential predictors of the probability of detection at the border of international travel–related pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection, People’s Republic of China, 2009*

Model OR (95% CrI) p value
Fever on arrival 1.84 (1.04–3.27) 0.042
Onset of symptoms >1 d before arrival 1.05 (0.91–1.22) 0.288
Age group, y† 0.126
0–4 1
5–24 1.67 (0.55–5.03)
25–49 1.12 (0.36–3.50)
50–64 0.58 (0.13–2.69)
Province‡ 0.400
44 1
31 1.05 (0.49–2.23)
35 0.66 (0.30–1.45)
Fever on arrival 1.80 (1.26–2.57) 0.001
Onset of symptoms >1 d before arrival 2.36 (1.18–4.73) 0.016
Interaction between fever on arrival and onset of symptoms >1 d before arrival 0.45 (0.22–0.89) 0.023

*OR, odds ratio; CrI, credible interval.
†n = 463. Only 1 such person was >64 y of age, and this person was excluded from this analysis.
‡n = 302. Only 3 provinces had >40 persons so only they are included here.
§Likelihood ratio–based p value for the global hypothesis that all ORs equal 1 (3 df 0.008). The deviance (that is minus twice the log likelihood) for the multivariable model presented was 520.6, whereas the deviance for the model with only an intercept (i.e., no effects of fever or time from onset to arrival) was 532.5.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

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