Skip directly to search Skip directly to A to Z list Skip directly to site content
CDC Home

Volume 19, Number 2—February 2013

Research

Phylogenetic and Ecologic Perspectives of a Monkeypox Outbreak, Southern Sudan, 2005

Yoshinori NakazawaComments to Author , Ginny L. Emerson, Darin S. Carroll, Hui Zhao, Yu Li, Mary G. Reynolds, Kevin L. Karem, Victoria A. Olson, R. Ryan Lash, Whitni B. Davidson, Scott K. Smith, Rebecca S. Levine, Russell L. Regnery, Scott A. Sammons, Michael A. Frace, Elmangory M. Mutasim, Mubarak E. M. Karsani, Mohammed O. Muntasir, Alimagboul A. Babiker, Langova Opoka, Vipul Chowdhary, and Inger K. Damon
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (Y. Nakazawa, G. L. Emerson, D.S. Carroll, H. Zhao, Y. Li, M.G. Reynolds, K. L. Karem, V. A. Olson, R. R. Lash, W. B. Davidson, S. K. Smith, R. S. Levine, R. L. Regnery, S. A. Sammons, M.A. Frace, I.K. Damon); National Public Health Laboratory, Khartoum, Sudan (E.M. Mutasim, M.E.M. Karsani); Federal Ministry of Health, Khartoum (M.O. Muntasir, A.A. Babiker); World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (M.L. Opoka); Médecins Sans Frontières, Khartoum (V. Chowdhary)

Main Article

Table 3

Ecological analyses of monkeypox outbreak, Southern Sudan, 2005*

Locality Value AMT, °C MDR, °C MTWM, °C MTCM, °C AP, mm PWM, mm PDM, mm
Sub-Saharan Africa Mean 23.60 13.052 33.309 13.060 978.17 195.34 9.23
Min −3.0 2.7 3.5 −8.6 8 3 0
Max 31.9 20.8 42.5 23.3 4552 1157 165

SD
3.525
2.459
3.933
5.589
569.75
97.94
18.54
Sudan Mean 27.4 13.925 37.3 17.525 821 193.25 0
Min 27.3 13.9 37.1 17.5 815 192 0
Max 27.6 14.0 37.7 17.6 829 195 0

SD
0.141
0.05
0.282
0.05
5.83
1.25
0
SPA GARP Mean 24.34 10.59 31.36 17.55 1,680.45 253.6 32.86
Min 16.1 7.4 24.5 5.9 803 135 3
Max 27.80 15.4 36.9 21.9 2902 699 137

SD
1.392
1.156
1.63
2.170
263.133
54.746
28.442
SPA Maxent Mean 24.74 10.24 31.32 18.43 1,745.54 251.6 38.26
Min 13.7 5.4 19.4 7.8 941 157 1
Max 27.8 14.5 37.3 23.0 3303 798 137
SD 1.224 1.085 1.41 1.927 254.025 60.917 29.946

*Deviation values for climatic environmental variables within the study region (sub-Saharan Africa); at georeferenced points of human monkeypox occurrences in Sudan; and within the suitable predicted areas for monkeypox identified by each algorithm, GARP, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (http://openmodeller.sourceforge.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8&itemid=4) and Maxent [www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/maxent/). AMT, annual mean temperature; MDR, mean diurnal range; MTWM; maximum temperature of the warmest month; MTCM, minimum temperature of the coldest month; AP, annual precipitation; PWM, precipitation of the wettest month; PDM, precipitation of the driest month; Min, minimum; Max, maximum; SPA, suitable predicted areas for monkeypox transmission.

Main Article

Top of Page

USA.gov: The U.S. Government's Official Web PortalDepartment of Health and Human Services
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention   1600 Clifton Rd. Atlanta, GA 30333, USA
800-CDC-INFO (800-232-4636) TTY: (888) 232-6348 - Contact CDC–INFO