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Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research

Estimates of Outbreak Risk from New Introductions of Ebola with Immediate and Delayed Transmission Control

Damon J.A. TothComments to Author , Adi V. Gundlapalli, Karim Khader, Warren B.P. Pettey, Michael Rubin, Frederick R. Adler, and Matthew H. Samore
Author affiliations: University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA (D.J.A. Toth, A.V. Gundlapalli, K. Khader, W.B.P. Pettey, M.A. Rubin, F.R. Adler, M.H. Samore); US Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City (D.J.A. Toth, A.V. Gundlapalli, K. Khader, W.B.P. Pettey, M.A. Rubin, M.H. Samore).

Main Article

Table 2

Summary of Ebola data and parameter estimates*

Patient group No. Transmissions R estimate (90% CI) k estimate (90% CI)
All 56 29 0.5 (0.2–1.0) 0.09 (0.03–0.2)
Traveler 7 19 2.9 (0.6–6.1) 0.4 (0.2–1.3)
Evacuated patient 20 1 0.05 (0–0.1)
Patient with locally acquired Ebola 29 9 0.3 (0.1–0.5) 0.5 (0.2–∞)

*Cases were included if the patient spent any of the infectious period in a country other than Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone. The 56 patients are split into 3 mutually exclusive subgroups, depending on the patients’ circumstances. Parameters R and k of the negative binomial distribution are the reproductive number and dispersion parameter, respectively. Goodness of fit was not rejected by a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (p>0.6 in all cases).

Main Article

Page created: July 14, 2015
Page updated: July 14, 2015
Page reviewed: July 14, 2015
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