Figure 2. Effectiveness of vaccination strategies for Ebola virus disease under different transmission scenarios. A) Proportion of simulations that led to a large outbreak (defined as >500 clusters) in the early 2014 Guinea transmission scenario. Red lines indicate no vaccination, green lines indicate ring vaccination, blue lines indicate mass vaccination; solid lines indicate outbreaks that started with 1 index case, and dashed lines indicate outbreaks that started with 5 index cases. We simulated 1,000 outbreaks and calculated the proportion that resulted in >500 clusters. When the space between the red and green lines is large, the model suggests that ring vaccination would provide substantial additional value over standard public health control measures alone. B) Proportion of simulations that led to a large outbreak in partial control scenario.