Volume 22, Number 12—December 2016
Research
Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008–2011
Roy Williams
, Johan Malherbe, Harold Weepener, Phelix Majiwa, and Robert Swanepoel
, Johan Malherbe, Harold Weepener, Phelix Majiwa, and Robert Swanepoel
Table
Summary of predicated risk for all Rift Valley fever outbreaks during the epidemics of 2008–2011, South Africa*
| Year, month of outbreak | No. outbreaks | 3-mo rolling maximum risk map | Risk for outbreak |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Moderate | High | |||
| 2008 | |||||
| Jan | 5 | 2007 Oct–Dec | NA | 5 | NA |
| Feb | 10 | 2007 Oct–Dec | NA | 10 | NA |
| Mar | 5 | 2008 Nov–Jan | NA | NA | 5 |
| Apr | 7 | 2008 Nov–Jan | 1 | NA | 6 |
| May | 4 | 2008 Nov–Jan | NA | NA | 4 |
| Jun |
4 |
2008 Nov–Jan |
1 |
3 |
NA |
| 2009 | |||||
| Feb | 6 | 2009 Nov–Jan | NA | 6 | NA |
| Mar | 4 | 2009 Nov–Jan | NA | 4 | NA |
| Apr | 7 | 2009 Dec–Feb | 1 | 6 | NA |
| May | 1 | 2009 Dec–Feb | NA | 1 | NA |
| Jun | 1 | 2009 Dec–Feb | NA | 1 | NA |
| Oct | 22 | 2009 Jun–Aug | 22 | 4 | NA |
| Nov | 16 | 2009 Jun–Aug | 16 | 5 | NA |
| Dec |
1 |
2009 Jun–Aug |
1 |
NA |
NA |
| 2010 | |||||
| Jan | 2 | 2009 Oct–Dec | NA | 1 | 1 |
| Feb | 99 | 2010 Nov–Jan | 2 | 15 | 82 |
| Mar | 257 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 4 | 83 | 170 |
| Apr | 140 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 2 | 39 | 99 |
| May | 38 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 8 | 16 | 14 |
| Jun | 10 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Jul | 1 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 1 | NA | NA |
| Aug |
2 |
2010 Dec–Feb |
1 |
NA |
1 |
| 2011 | |||||
| Jan | 6 | 2010 Oct–Dec | 6 | NA | NA |
| Feb | 15 | 2011 Nov–Jan | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Mar | 51 | 2011 Dec–Feb | 2 | 19 | 30 |
| Apr | 47 | 2011 Dec–Feb | 5 | 14 | 28 |
| May | 14 | 2011 Dec–Feb | 8 | 1 | 5 |
| Jun |
3 |
2011 Dec–Feb |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Total (%) | 778 | 88 (11.3) | 236 (30.3) | 454 (58.4) | |
*Values were extracted from relevant 3-mo rolling maximum risk maps. NA, not applicable.
Page created: November 17, 2016
Page updated: November 17, 2016
Page reviewed: November 17, 2016
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.