Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017
Research
Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication
, Oriol Mitjà, Christopher Fitzpatrick, Kingsley Asiedu, Anthony W. Solomon, David C.W. Mabey, and Sebastian Funk
Table 2
Indicative predicted coverage and number of rounds of treatment required to achieve yaws eradication
| Predicted probability by estimated R0 | Treatment every 6 mo |
Treatment every 12 mo |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage required | Total no. rounds* | Coverage required | Total no. rounds* | ||
| 80% predicted probability of eradication | |||||
| Low R0 (1.45, 95% CI 1.01–2.14) | 75% | 8 | 85% | 7 | |
| Medium R0 (1.95, 95% CI 1.38–2.91) | 90% | 7 | † | † | |
| High R0 (2.47, 95% CI 1.7–3.68) |
95% |
8 |
† |
† |
|
| 100% predicted probability of eradication | |||||
| Low R0 (1.45, 95% CI 1.01–2.14) | 85% | 8 | 95% | 6 | |
| Medium R0 (1.95, 95% CI 1.38–2.91) | † | † | † | † | |
| High R0 (2.47, 95% CI 1.7–3.68) | † | † | † | † | |
*R0 (basic reproduction number) is the number of new cases arising from a single index case in a fully susceptible population. For this table, the number of rounds of total community treatment and total targeted treatment is combined (e.g., a total of 7 rounds could be 3 rounds of total community treatment and 4 rounds of total targeted treatment or, alternatively, 2 rounds of total community treatment and 5 rounds of total targeted treatment). Data are indicative only, and in some settings, higher coverage would allow a reduction in the total number of rounds required (see text and Figure 2).
†No combination of treatment variables was associated with the stated eradication probability.