Volume 3, Number 2—June 1997
Perspective
The Economic Impact of a Bioterrorist Attack: Are Prevention and Postattack Intervention Programs Justifiable?
Arnold F. Kaufmann, Martin I. Meltzer
, and George P. Schmid
, and George P. SchmidTable 3
Costsa($ millions) of a bioterrorist attack with no postexposure prophylaxis program
| Anthrax | Tularemia | Brucellosis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct costs | |||
| Medical: Base estimatesb | |||
| Hospital | 194.1 | 445.8 | 170.3 |
| OPVc | 2.0 | 10.5 | 48.9 |
| Medical: Upper estimatesd | |||
| Hospital | 237.1 | 543.3 | 211.7 |
| OPVc | 4.4 | 18.5 | 78.3 |
| Lost productivity | |||
| Illnesse | |||
| Hospital | 21.6 | 50.9 | 18.8 |
| OPVc | 0.7 | 3.9 | 15.0 |
| Death | |||
| 3% discountf | 25,985.7 | 4,891.2 | 326.5 |
| 5% discountf | 17,889.3 | 3,367.3 | 224.7 |
| Total costs | |||
| Base estimates | |||
| 3% discountf | 26,204.1 | 5,402.4 | 579.4 |
| 5% discountf | 18,107.7 | 3,878.4 | 477.7 |
| Upper estimates | |||
| 3% discountf | 26,249.7 | 5,507.9 | 650.1 |
| 5% discountf | 18,153.1 | 3,983.9 | 548.4 |
aAssuming 100,000 exposed.
bMedical costs are the costs of hospitalization (which include follow-up outpatient visits) and outpatient visits (Table 1).
cOPV = outpatient visits.
Upper estimates calculated with data in Table 1.
eLost productivity due to illness is the value of time spent in hospital and during OPVs (Table 1).
fDiscount rate applied to calculate the present value of expected future earnings and housekeeping services, weighted by age and sex composition of the United States workforce (16), lost due to premature death.
