Volume 3, Number 2—June 1997
Perspective
The Economic Impact of a Bioterrorist Attack: Are Prevention and Postattack Intervention Programs Justifiable?
Arnold F. Kaufmann, Martin I. Meltzer
, and George P. Schmid
, and George P. SchmidTable 5
Cost thresholdsa of interventions ($/person) by day of intervention initiation, prophylaxis effectiveness, and discount rates.
| Threshold costs for intervention ($/person, multiplication factor of 15b) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthrax |
Tularemia |
Brucellosis |
||||||
| Post-attack dayd | Disc. ratec |
Post-attack day | Disc. rate |
Post-attack day | Disc. rate |
|||
| 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 90% effectivenesse | 80% effectivenesse | 80% effectivenesse | ||||||
| 0 | 9,838 | 14,238 | 0 | 1,891 | 2,633 | 0-7 | 233* | 282* |
| 1 | 8,851 | 12,809 | 1 | 1,873 | 2,609 | 8-14 | 224* | 272* |
| 2 | 7,022 | 10,162 | 2 | 1,599 | 2,227 | 15-28 | 211* | 255* |
| 3 | 3,775 | 5,463 | 3 | 756 | 1,053 | 29-56 | 179* | 217* |
| 4 | 1,893 | 2,739 | 4 | 258 | 366 | 57-112 | 86* | 104* |
| 5 | 944 | 1,366 | 5 | 79 | 110 | 113+ | 24* | 30* |
| 6 | 468 | 677 | 6 | 20* | 28 | |||
| Prophylaxis costc | $226 | $28 | $285 | |||||
| 95% effectivenesse | 95% effectivenesse | |||||||
| 0 | 10,370 | 15,007 | 0 | 2,229 | 3,104 | 0-7 | 274 | 333 |
| 1 | 9,359 | 13,544 | 1 | 2,207 | 3,074 | 8-14 | 264 | 320 |
| 2 | 7,427 | 10,948 | 2 | 1,898 | 2,644 | 15-28 | 248 | 301 |
| 3 | 3,995 | 5,782 | 3 | 898 | 1,251 | 29-56 | 211 | 256 |
| 4 | 2,004 | 2,900 | 4 | 328 | 457 | 57-112 | 102* | 124* |
| 5 | 1,000 | 1,447 | 5 | 93* | 131 | 113+ | 29* | 35* |
| 6 | 496 | 718 | 6 | 23* | 32* | |||
| Prophylaxis coste | $238 | $104 | $161 | |||||
*Threshold value is below estimated cost of prophylaxis.
aCost threshold is the point where cost of intervention and net savings due to the intervention are equal.
bMultiplication factor to adjust for persons who participated in the prophylaxis program but were unexposed.
cApplied to present value of expected future earnings and housekeeping services (weighted average for age and sex).
dPostattack day on which prophylaxis was effecively implemented.
eSee Table 2 for prophylaxis regimens assumed to give the stated levels of effectiveness and cost/person of prophylaxis.
