Volume 6, Number 2—April 2000
Research
Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States
Sara M. Debanne*
, Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. Rowland
, Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. RowlandTable 1
Baseline values of contagious parameters, for 17- to 25-year-old white men, by state
| New ACRa | ARI b | ARI/TB c | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 0.13 | 38.2 | 293.6 |
| Arizona | 0.30 | 52.7 | 178.3 |
| Arkansas | 0.15 | 39.7 | 261.6 |
| California | 0.16 | 36.4 | 228.1 |
| Colorado | 0.19 | 18.9 | 97.4 |
| Connecticut | 0.12 | 15.7 | 134.2 |
| Delaware | 0.12 | 30.1 | 243.2 |
| District of Columbia | 0.15 | 55.6 | 376.1 |
| Florida | 0.07 | 27.4 | 410.5 |
| Georgia | 0.08 | 31.8 | 395.7 |
| Idaho | 0.10 | 13.2 | 135.3 |
| Illinois | 0.15 | 39.6 | 269.3 |
| Indiana | 0.16 | 30.7 | 198.0 |
| Iowa | 0.07 | 9.2 | 130.4 |
| Kansas | 0.07 | 12.6 | 176.9 |
| Kentucky | 0.28 | 50.6 | 177.9 |
| Louisiana | 0.10 | 35.4 | 339.6 |
| Maine | 0.14 | 25.2 | 179.9 |
| Maryland | 0.22 | 36.4 | 164.4 |
| Massachusetts | 0.14 | 28.9 | 203.9 |
| Michigan | 0.14 | 29.7 | 205.3 |
| Minnesota | 0.10 | 17.3 | 181.8 |
| Mississippi | 0.09 | 30.3 | 334.3 |
| Missouri | 0.14 | 32.9 | 231.8 |
| Montana | 0.11 | 13.6 | 123.2 |
| Nebraska | 0.09 | 16.4 | 174.5 |
| Nevada | 0.07 | 53.8 | 747.9 |
| New Hampshire | 0.11 | 16.8 | 153.6 |
| New Jersey | 0.15 | 23.7 | 161.6 |
| New Mexico | 0.22 | 29.1 | 130.9 |
| New York | 0.17 | 36.6 | 218.1 |
| North Carolina | 0.08 | 26.1 | 342.8 |
| North Dakota | 0.07 | 8.6 | 122.5 |
| Ohio | 0.14 | 27.1 | 198.2 |
| Oklahoma | 0.13 | 24.0 | 185.8 |
| Oregon | 0.12 | 32.0 | 257.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 0.17 | 32.1 | 183.8 |
| Rhode Island | 0.12 | 27.9 | 235.7 |
| South Carolina | 0.04 | 26.7 | 615.2 |
| South Dakota | 0.06 | 9.2 | 163.8 |
| Tennessee | 0.19 | 45.8 | 244.7 |
| Texas | 0.21 | 29.2 | 138.7 |
| Utah | 0.04 | 7.6 | 197.1 |
| Vermont | 0.18 | 18.3 | 99.3 |
| Virginia | 0.13 | 32.1 | 237.9 |
| Washington | 0.11 | 25.7 | 231.9 |
| West Virginia | 0.21 | 39.1 | 189.4 |
| Wisconsin | 0.08 | 22.1 | 260.1 |
| Wyoming | 0.15 | 10.3 | 66.7 |
| Total | 0.14 | 30.1 | 210.3 |
aACR, Active case rate per 100,000 per year tuberculosis
bARI, annual rate of infection per 100,000 per year
cContagious parameter
