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Volume 6, Number 2—April 2000

Research

Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States

Sara M. Debanne*Comments to Author , Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. Rowland
Author affiliations: *Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA; †Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; and ‡D.Y. Rowland Associates, Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Main Article

Table 1

Baseline values of contagious parameters, for 17- to 25-year-old white men, by state

New ACRa ARI b ARI/TB c
Alabama 0.13 38.2 293.6
Arizona 0.30 52.7 178.3
Arkansas 0.15 39.7 261.6
California 0.16 36.4 228.1
Colorado 0.19 18.9 97.4
Connecticut 0.12 15.7 134.2
Delaware 0.12 30.1 243.2
District of Columbia 0.15 55.6 376.1
Florida 0.07 27.4 410.5
Georgia 0.08 31.8 395.7
Idaho 0.10 13.2 135.3
Illinois 0.15 39.6 269.3
Indiana 0.16 30.7 198.0
Iowa 0.07 9.2 130.4
Kansas 0.07 12.6 176.9
Kentucky 0.28 50.6 177.9
Louisiana 0.10 35.4 339.6
Maine 0.14 25.2 179.9
Maryland 0.22 36.4 164.4
Massachusetts 0.14 28.9 203.9
Michigan 0.14 29.7 205.3
Minnesota 0.10 17.3 181.8
Mississippi 0.09 30.3 334.3
Missouri 0.14 32.9 231.8
Montana 0.11 13.6 123.2
Nebraska 0.09 16.4 174.5
Nevada 0.07 53.8 747.9
New Hampshire 0.11 16.8 153.6
New Jersey 0.15 23.7 161.6
New Mexico 0.22 29.1 130.9
New York 0.17 36.6 218.1
North Carolina 0.08 26.1 342.8
North Dakota 0.07 8.6 122.5
Ohio 0.14 27.1 198.2
Oklahoma 0.13 24.0 185.8
Oregon 0.12 32.0 257.0
Pennsylvania 0.17 32.1 183.8
Rhode Island 0.12 27.9 235.7
South Carolina 0.04 26.7 615.2
South Dakota 0.06 9.2 163.8
Tennessee 0.19 45.8 244.7
Texas 0.21 29.2 138.7
Utah 0.04 7.6 197.1
Vermont 0.18 18.3 99.3
Virginia 0.13 32.1 237.9
Washington 0.11 25.7 231.9
West Virginia 0.21 39.1 189.4
Wisconsin 0.08 22.1 260.1
Wyoming 0.15 10.3 66.7
Total 0.14 30.1 210.3

aACR, Active case rate per 100,000 per year tuberculosis
bARI, annual rate of infection per 100,000 per year
cContagious parameter

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