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Volume 6, Number 2—April 2000

Research

Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States

Sara M. Debanne*Comments to Author , Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. Rowland
Author affiliations: *Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA; †Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; and ‡D.Y. Rowland Associates, Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Literature-based lower, best, and upper estimates of the risk of developing tuberculosis for infected persons, by age and sex

Acute risk
Ongoing risk
Age Male Female Male Female
<1 0.013, 0.07, 0.07 0.013, 0.07, 0.07 0.0016, 0.004, 0.009 0.0016, 0.004, 0.009
1-4 0.013, 0.026, 0.026 0.013, 0.026, 0.026 0.0016, 0.004, 0.009 0.0016, 0.004, 0.009
5-14 0.002, 0.002, 0.006 0.002, 0.002, 0.006 0.0008, 0. 0008, 0.0013 0.0008, 0.0008, 0.0013
15-34 0.002, 0.01, 0.01 0.002, 0.02, 0.02 0.0003, 0.0013, 0.0042 0.0003, 0.0016, 0.005
35-54 0.0014, 0.009, 0.009 0.0014, 0.009, 0.009 0.0002, 0.0009, 0.0015 0.0002, 0.0009, 0.0015
55+ 0.0019, 0.005, 0.005 0.0019, 0.005, 0.005 0.001, 0.001, 0.002 0.001, 0.001, 0.002

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