Volume 6, Number 2—April 2000
Research
Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States
Sara M. Debanne*
, Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. Rowland
, Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. RowlandTable 3
Actual and projected tuberculosis rates per 100,000 for selected population groups, 1980 to 2010
| Year |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 |
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
||||
| Actual |
Proj. |
Actual |
Proj. |
Actual |
Proj. |
Actual |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
|
| All | (12.5) | 10.6 | (9.5) | 11.3 | (10.4) | 9.7 | (8.7) | 8.3 | 6.6 | 4.6 |
| By race/ethnicity | ||||||||||
| White, not Hispanic | (6.6) | 5.1 | (4.7) | 4.8 | (4.2 ) | 3.8 | (3.1) | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Black, not Hispanic | (34.3) | 30.5 | (28.0) | 34.7 | (33.0) | 27.9 | (23.9) | 23.1 | 16.9 | 9.3 |
| Hispanic | (25.6) | 24.1 | (18.2) | 26.5 | (22.1) | 33.2 | (18.0) | 28.5 | 23.2 | 16.7 |
| American Indian | (32.7) | 31.5 | (24.5) | 26.3 | (19.5) | 19.2 | (16.5) | 16.6 | 11.4 | 7.0 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | (86.4) | 39.9 | (50.9) | 34.9 | (42.8) | 27.1 | (45.9) | 20.1 | 13.1 | 6.2 |
| By age | ||||||||||
| Under 5 | (1.1) | 3.6 | (4.4) | 4.3 | (5.1) | 4.1 | (4.7) | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 5-14 | (0.8) | 2.5 | (1.4) | 2.4 | (1.9) | 2.2 | (1.7) | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15-24 | (2.8) | 6.0 | (4.3) | 8.1 | (5.2) | 6.9 | (4.7) | 5.8 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| 25-44 | (8.4) | 10.6 | (9.4) | 12.5 | (12.0) | 10.7 | (9.9) | 9.3 | 7.3 | 4.4 |
| 45-64 | (19.6) | 14.0 | (14.0) | 15.3 | (13.7) | 13.6 | (11.5) | 11.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| 65+ | (49.9) | 27.1 | (24.8) | 20.1 | (20.3) | 16.1 | (16.0) | 13.4 | 11.1 | 8.5 |
| Selected Metropolitan Areas | ||||||||||
| New York City | (18.6) | 24.9 | (24.7) | 41.7 | (43.9) | 35.2 | (30.1) | 30.3 | 25.3 | 17.9 |
| San Francisco | (19.8) | 13.8 | (16.7) | 17.9 | (21.9) | 18.3 | (23.0) | 17.4 | 13.2 | 5.1 |
| Los Angeles | (24.8) | 26.7 | (19.2) | 30.5 | (23.6) | 31.5 | (19.1) | 27.7 | 22.1 | 15.6 |
| Miami | (28.0) | 17.5 | (23.7) | 21.1 | (23.6) | 13.3 | (19.1) | 9.9 | 8.8 | 5.7 |
