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Volume 8, Number 6—June 2002

Research

Defining and Detecting Malaria Epidemics in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Simon I. Hay*†Comments to Author , Milka Simba†, Millie Busolo‡, Abdisalan M. Noor†, Helen L. Guyatt*†, Sam A. Ochola‡, and Robert W. Snow*†‡
Author affiliations: *University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; †Kenya Medical Research Institute/Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya; ‡Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya;

Main Article

Table 2

Comparison of total number of epidemic months detected by the World Health Organization (WHO), Cullen, and cumulative-sum techniques for three study hospitals, western Kenyaa

Technique Method Kilgoris
1998-1999
N=180 (%) Kisii
1992-2000
N=108 (%) Tabaka
1986-2000
N=180 (%)
WHO Not transformed 75 (41.7) 34 (31.5) 77 (42.8)
Cullen Not transformed, SCI 26 (14.4) 11 (10.2) 23 (12.8)
Not transformed, KCI 47 (26.1) 16 (14.8) 45 (25.0)
Log10 transformed, SCI 13 (7.2) 4 (3.7) 12 (6.7)
Log10 transformed, KCI 39 (21.7) 15 (13.9) 36 (20.0)
C-sum Not transformed, SCI 17 (9.4) 6 (5.6) 19 (10.6)
Not transformed, KCI 55 (30.6) 27 (25.0) 64 (35.6)
Log10 transformed, SCI 6 (3.3) 3 (2.8) 8 (4.4)
Log10 transformed, KCI 66 (36.7) 30 (27.8) 76 (42.2)

aFigures are number of months defined as epidemic in the monitoring period. Brackets are the percentage of the total months defined as epidemic.

Main Article

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