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Volume 9, Number 10—October 2003

Research

Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa

Anna M. Molesworth*, Luis E. Cuevas*, Stephen J. Connor*, Andrew P. Morse†, and Madeleine C. Thomson*Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: *Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom; †University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Main Article

Table 3

Performance of the model for predicting epidemic experience at the district levela

Epidemic experience Observed
Predicted
Ever
Never
Total districts
Ever
1,022
682
1,704
Never
209
1,363
1,572
Total districts
1,231
2,045
3,276
Model
Sensitivity % (95% CI)
Specificity % (95% CI)
Final (100%)
83 (81 to 85)
67 (65 to 69)
Mean validation (40%) 84 (80 to 87) 65 (62 to 69)

aExcludes five districts for which environmental data were unavailable; CI, confidence interval.

Main Article

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