Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Bacterial Resistance to Penicillin G by Decreased Affinity of Penicillin-Binding Proteins: A Mathematical Model

L. Temime*

, P.Y. Boëlle*, P. Courvalin†, and D. Guillemot†

Author affiliations: *Institute National de la Santé et de la Recherdhé, Paris, France; †Unité des Agents Antibactériens, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France

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Figure 2

(a) Time to emergence of the first Streptococcus pneumoniae with a given MIC (full line) and time required for 20% of the bacterial population to reach this MIC (dotted line), starting from an all-susceptible pneumococcal population. Error bars correspond to stochastic variations in the model simulations (10th and 90th percentiles based on 100 simulations). (b) Simulated and (c) observed changes with time since 1987 in the distribution of resistance levels in the pneumococcal population in Franc

Figure 2. (a) Time to emergence of the first Streptococcus pneumoniae with a given MIC (full line) and time required for 20% of the bacterial population to reach this MIC (dotted line), starting from an all-susceptible pneumococcal population. Error bars correspond to stochastic variations in the model simulations (10th and 90th percentiles based on 100 simulations). (b) Simulated and (c) observed changes with time since 1987 in the distribution of resistance levels in the pneumococcal population in France. Observed data are taken from the Centre National de Référence des Pneumocoques (4).

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