Volume 12, Number 12—December 2006
Research
Evaluating Detection of an Inhalational Anthrax Outbreak
Table 1
Parameter | Parameter value intervals | Probability distribution | Source† | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Disease model | |||||
Incubation duration, d; median | (5, 9) (9, 11) (11, 15) | Log normal | (2,21,22) | ||
Incubation duration, dispersion | (1.5, 1.9) (1.9, 2.1) (2.1, 2.5) | Log normal | (2,21,22) | ||
Prodromal duration, d; median | (1.5, 2.3) (2.3 ,2.7) (2.7, 3.5) | Log normal | (2,22) | ||
Prodromal duration, dispersion | (1.2, 1.4) (1.4, 1.5) (1.5, 1.7) | Log normal | (2,22) | ||
Healthcare use | |||||
Probability of visit, prodromal state | (0.05, 0.25) (0.25, 0.35) (0.35, 0.55) | Bernoulli | (23,24) | ||
Probability of visit, fulminant state | (0.7, 0.9) (0.9, 0.95) (0.95, 1) | Bernoulli | Estimate | ||
Probability of respiratory syndrome, prodromal state | (0.5, 0.7) (0.7, 0.8) (0. 8,1) | Bernoulli | (25,26) | ||
Blood culture test, prodromal state | (0.001, 0.01) (0.01, 0.015) (0.015, 0.025) | Bernoulli | (28) | ||
Blood culture test, fulminant state | (0.7, 0.9) (0.9, 0.95) (0.95, 1) | Bernoulli | Estimate | ||
Sensitivity of blood culture | (0.5, 0.8) (0.8, 0.9) (0.9, 1) | Bernoulli | (27) | ||
Time until blood culture growth, d | (0.4, 0.8) (0.8, 1.0) (1.0, 1.4) | Exponential | (30) | ||
Probability of isolation given growth | (0.5, 0.8) (0.8, 0.9) (0.9, 1) | Bernoulli | (29) | ||
Time until blood culture isolation, d | (0.5, 0.6) (0.6, 0.9) (0.9, 1.5) | Exponential | (25)
*Using a Latin hypercube strategy, a value for each parameter was sampled by randomly selecting 1 of the 3 intervals for the parameter and randomly sampling a value on the selected interval. The sampled values parameterize probability distributions, which are sampled for the simulation model. *Using a Latin hypercube strategy, a value for each parameter was sampled by randomly selecting 1 of the 3 intervals for the parameter and randomly sampling a value on the selected interval. The sampled values parameterize probability distributions, which are sampled for the simulation model. |
*Using a Latin hypercube strategy, a value for each parameter was sampled by randomly selecting 1 of the 3 intervals for the parameter and randomly sampling a value on the selected interval. The sampled values parameterize probability distributions, which are sampled for the simulation model.
†References that support the parameter value intervals.
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