Volume 13, Number 1—January 2007
Dispatch
Death Rates from Malaria Epidemics, Burundi and Ethiopia
Jean-Paul Guthmann*1
, Maryline Bonnet*, Laurence Ahoua*, François Dantoine*, Suna Balkan†, Michel van Herp‡, Abiy Tamrat§, Dominique Legros*¶, Vincent Brown*, and Francesco Checchi*#
, Maryline Bonnet*, Laurence Ahoua*, François Dantoine*, Suna Balkan†, Michel van Herp‡, Abiy Tamrat§, Dominique Legros*¶, Vincent Brown*, and Francesco Checchi*#Table 2
Estimated number of deaths, total population and children <5 years of age, Burundi (2000–2001) and Ethiopia (2003–2004) malaria epidemics*
| Burundi | Ethiopia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayanza | Ngozi | Karuzi | Damot Gale | |
| Estimated source population (total) | 246,500 | 574,400 | 308,400 | 286,600 |
| Estimated no. children <5 y† | 41,900 (17%) | 103,400 (18%) | 61,100 (19.8%) | 59,900 (20.9%) |
| Recall period, d (approximate proportion of entire epidemic period) | 53 (20%) | 155 (74%) | 153 (85%) | 125 (83%) |
| Estimated no. deaths, all causes (95% CI) | 1,300 (800–2200) | 16,000 (11,600–20,500) | 5,200 (4,700–7,100) | 7,500 (5,400–10,400) |
| Estimated no. deaths, all causes, children < 5 y (95% CI) | 800 (400–1,600) | 8,000 (5,300–11,900) | 2,800 (1,900–4,100) | 2,500 1,700–3,800) |
| Estimated no. deaths probably due to malaria (95% CI) | 1,000 (500–,2,000) | 8,900 (6,200–13,400) | 2,800 (1,900–3,800) | 5,400 (3,600–7,500) |
| Estimated no. deaths probably due to malaria, children <5 y (95% CI) | 500 (200–1,200) | 4,200 (2,400–7,400) | 1,500 (800–2,600) | 2,100 (1,400–3,100) |
*CI, confidence interval.
†Using estimates from respective surveys, the mid-period proportion of children <5 years was calculated as follows: (children alive at end of period + [0.5 × deaths for children <5 y during period])/(all persons alive at end of period + [0.5 × all deaths during period]).
