Volume 15, Number 10—October 2009
Dispatch
Fine-scale Identification of the Most Likely Source of a Human Plague Infection
Rebecca E. Colman, Amy J. Vogler, Jennifer L. Lowell, Kenneth L. Gage, Christina Morway, Pamela J. Reynolds, Paul Ettestad, Paul Keim, Michael Y. Kosoy, and David M. Wagner
Table 2
Overall relative probabilities of isolates with genotypes B or C as the source of a human plague infection in New Mexico, USA*
| MLVA genotype | Rates of specific mutations between each genotype and genotype of the human isolate (A)† |
Hypothesis | Overall relative probability | OR‡ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M34:1 | M25:1 | M25:2 | ||||
| B (yard) | 8.2 × 10–5 | 9.7 × 10–5 | – | B→A | 7.9 × 10–9 | – |
| C (trail, scenario 1) | 8.2 × 10–5 | – | 1.3 × 10–5 | C1→A | 1.0 × 10–9 | 7.9 |
| C (trail, scenario 2) | 8.2 × 10–5 | (9.7 × 10–5)2 | – | C2→A | 7.6 × 10–13 | 1.0 × 104 |
*MLVA, multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis; OR, odds ratio.
†Values generated using data and approaches described in (8).
‡The overall relative probability for each subsequent hypothesis is compared with the most likely hypothesis (B→A).
