Volume 16, Number 3—March 2010
Dispatch
School Closure and Mitigation of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong
Joseph T. Wu, Benjamin J. Cowling
, Eric H.Y. Lau, Dennis K.M. Ip, Lai-Ming Ho, Thomas Tsang, Shuk-Kwan Chuang, Pak-Yin Leung, Su-Vui Lo, Shao-Haei Liu, and Steven Riley
, Eric H.Y. Lau, Dennis K.M. Ip, Lai-Ming Ho, Thomas Tsang, Shuk-Kwan Chuang, Pak-Yin Leung, Su-Vui Lo, Shao-Haei Liu, and Steven RileyTable
Summary statistics of posterior distributions obtained by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo in modeling the effects of school closures on mitigating a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Hong Kong, 2009*
| Parameter† | Posterior mean (SD) | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Mi, daily number of effective seeds in age class i, I = 1,2,3 | <13 y: 0.1 (0.1) | 0–0.04 |
| 13–19 y: 0.4 (0.1) | 0.2–0.6 | |
| >19 y: 0.2 (0.2) | 0–0.6 | |
| Basic reproductive number | Before Jun 11: 1.71 (0.04) | 1.63–1.78 |
| Relative susceptibility of persons <20 y of age | 2.64 (0.08) | 2.48–2.78 |
| Percentage reduction in intra-age-group transmission given by school closures | 70% (3%) | 64%–75% |
| t1, the date at which reporting rates began to decline | Jun 18 (1.2 d) | Jun 17–Jun 21 |
| t2, the date at which reporting rates stopped declining | Jun 29 (0.3 d) | Jun 29–Jun 30 |
| r2, the reporting rate after t2 | 5.2% (1.1%) | 3.5%–7.7% |
*CI, confidence interval.
†Model assumes a linear decline in reporting rates from 100% to r2 between times t1 and t2.
