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Volume 17, Number 9—September 2011


Estimating Effect of Antiviral Drug Use during Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, United States

Charisma Y. Atkins, Anita Patel, Thomas H. Taylor, Matthew Biggerstaff, Toby L. Merlin, Stephanie M. Dulin, Benjamin A. Erickson, Rebekah H. Borse, Robert Hunkler, and Martin I. Meltzer
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (C.Y. Atkins, A. Patel, T.H. Taylor, Jr., M. Biggerstaff, T.L. Merlin, S.M. Dulin, B.A. Erikson, R.H. Borse, M.I. Meltzer); IMS Health, Fountain Hills, Arizona, USA (R. Hunkler)

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Table 5

Estimates of hospitalizations averted, by age group, assuming lower and upper estimates of influenza antiviral drug effectiveness, United States, 2009–2010*

Drug effectiveness estimate No. hospitalizations averted, by patient age group, y, median (range)
0–17 18–64 >65 Total
Lower 1,848 (1,527–2,081) 5,158 (4,264–5,803) 1,421 (1,171–1,595) 8,427 (6,961–9,479)
Upper 2,687 (2,221–3,027) 7,586(6,270–8,534) 2,368 (1,951–2,659) 12,641 (10,442–14,219)

*Estimates of antiviral drug effectiveness are shown Table 2 (source, Table 1). Lower, median, and upper estimates are generated by using the range of age-specific probabilities of hospitalization, given influenza-related clinical illness (Table 2).

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