Volume 18, Number 1—January 2012
Research
Modeling Insights into Haemophilus influenzae Type b Disease, Transmission, and Vaccine Programs
Michael L. Jackson1
, Charles E. Rose, Amanda Cohn, Fatima Coronado, Thomas A. Clark, Jay D. Wenger, Lisa Bulkow, Michael G. Bruce, Nancy E. Messonnier, and Thomas W. Hennessy
, Charles E. Rose, Amanda Cohn, Fatima Coronado, Thomas A. Clark, Jay D. Wenger, Lisa Bulkow, Michael G. Bruce, Nancy E. Messonnier, and Thomas W. Hennessy
Table
Estimated annual prevaccination force of infection from Hib infectious persons to persons with susceptible, no-antibody status and estimated annual prevalence of Hib colonization in 3 modeled populations, stratified by age group*
| Susceptible population, age group, y | Hib infections caused by infectious persons/1,000 susceptible persons, by age group, y |
Total no. cases | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 2–4 | 5–9 | >10 | ||
| United States | |||||
| 0–1 | 0.2 | 24.3 | 11.6 | 0.2 | 36.3 |
| 2–4 | 0.1 | 77.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 79.2 |
| 5–9 | 10.1 | 136.2 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 163.8 |
| >10 | 7.0 | 78.5 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 95.5 |
| Prevalence | 1.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | NA |
| England and Wales | |||||
| 0–1 | 0.6 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 28.4 |
| 2–4 | 3.1 | 62.8 | 11.2 | 1.9 | 79.0 |
| 5–9 | 10.1 | 133.6 | 16.8 | 1.9 | 162.5 |
| >10 | 6.6 | 78.4 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 95.8 |
| Prevalence | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | NA |
| Alaska Natives | |||||
| 0–1 | 109.5 | 5.8 | 52.3 | 1.2 | 168.8 |
| 2–4 | 28.4 | 15.8 | 49.2 | 5.4 | 98.8 |
| 5–9 | 28.9 | 144.3 | 357.8 | 5.9 | 536.9 |
| >10 | 28.4 | 21.7 | 80.3 | 64.7 | 195.1 |
| Prevalence | 5.2% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 4.5% | NA |
*Values are no. infections except as indicated. Data are based on Hib simulation model. Hib, Haemophilus influenzae type b; NA, not applicable.
1Current affiliation: Group Health Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA.
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