Volume 18, Number 8—August 2012
Research
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010
Jennifer L. Kwan, Bborie K. Park, Tim E. Carpenter, Van Ngo, Rachel Civen, and William K. Reisen
Table 3
Comparison of the sensitivity and specificity of CMVRA calculated at the emergency planning threshold of 2.6, the vector index calculated at the 80th percentile, and DYCAST risk estimates aggregated weekly for detecting risk for West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA*
| Model | 2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sen | Spe | Sen | Spe | Sen | Spe | Sen | Spe | Sen | Spe | Sen | Spe | Sen | Spe | |||||||
| CMVRA | 1 | 0.667 | 0.857 | 0.647 | 1 | 0.556 | 1 | 0.778 | 0.9 | 0.571 | 1 | 0.857 | 1 | 0.913 | ||||||
| Vector index | 0.778 | 0.867 | 0.714 | 0.941 | 0.667 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 0.714 | 1 | 0.652 | ||||||
| DYCAST | 0.517 | 0.268 | 0.034 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0.063 | 0 | 0 | 0.013 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
*CMVRA, California Mosquito-borne Virus Risk Assessment; DYCAST, Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system; sen, sensitivity; spe, specificity.
