Volume 2, Number 4—October 1996
Dispatch
Assessing the Costs and Benefits of an Oral Vaccine for Raccoon Rabies: A Possible Model
Table 2
Net present values (NPV) of different distribution scenarios for using an oral vaccine to control raccoon rabies
| Baiting scenario | NPV without pet vaccination ($ millions) |
NPV with pet vaccinationsa
($ millions) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate |
Discount rate |
|||||||
| 0% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 5% | |||
| Expanding circlesb | -10.2 | -6.2 | -4.7 | +5.5 | +3.1 | +2.2 | ||
| Entire area at onceb | -21.3 | -15.7 | -13.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -1.3 | ||
| Sensitivity analyses | ||||||||
| Reduced distribution:savingsc | ||||||||
| Expanding circles | -14.3 | -8.5 | -6.3 | +1.4 | +0.9 | +0.6 | ||
| Entire area done at once | -30.8 | -21.9 | -18.2 | -12.5 | -8.9 | -7.3 | ||
| No baiting of boundary | ||||||||
| Expanding circles | -0.7 | -1.8 | -2.1 | +14.1 | +7.9 | +4.5 | ||
| Entire area at once | +2.9 | -0.9 | -2.3 | +23.7 | +13.7 | +9.7 | ||
a) Cost savings (benefits) of 11 pets/sq. mi during an epizootic period, and 2.75 pets/sq. mi during the post-epizootic period, both at $16/pet.
b) Expanding circles assumes start with 20-mi radius, expanding by 5 mi every 2 years for 20 years, and then baiting a 5-mi wide boundary for next 10 years. Entire area assumes baiting 65-mi radius for 2 years, followed by 28 years of baiting 5-mi wide radius.
c) Ratio of distribution costs:cost savings is 1:1.03,based on New Jersey data (1). In baseline scenario, ratio is 1:1.57.
