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Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Dispatch

Transmission Models of Historical Ebola Outbreaks

John M. Drake, Iurii Bakach1, Matthew R. Just1, Suzanne M. O’Regan, Manoj Gambhir, and Isaac Chun-Hai FungComments to Author 
Author affiliations: University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA (J.M. Drake, S.M. O’Regan); Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA (I. Bakach, M.R. Just, I.C.-H. Fung); Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (M. Gambhir)

Main Article

Table 1

Compartmental models of historical Ebola virus outbreaks

Feature Model
Chowell et al. (1) Lekone and Finkenstädt (4) Legrand et al. (5)
Outbreak*
DRC 1995, Uganda 2000†
DRC 1995‡
DRC 1995, Uganda 2000§
Assumed
Homogeneous random mixing Yes Yes Yes
All human-to-human contact
Yes
Yes
Yes
Considered
Nosocomial transmission No No Yes
Burial transmission
No
No
Yes
No. transmission parameters
2 (preintervention decays to postintervention)
1 (decay to 0)
3 (community, nosocomial, burial)
Distribution Exponential Geometric Exponential
Underreporting accounted for No No No

*The DRC outbreak was caused by the Zaire strain; the Uganda outbreak was caused by the Sudan strain. DRC, Democratic Republic of Congo.
†Data sources: DRC 1995 (2), Uganda 2000 (3).
‡Data source: DRC 1995 (2).
§Data sources: DRC 1995 (2,6–8), Uganda 2000 (3,9).

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: July 15, 2015
Page updated: July 15, 2015
Page reviewed: July 15, 2015
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