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Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Dispatch

Transmission Models of Historical Ebola Outbreaks

John M. Drake, Iurii Bakach1, Matthew R. Just1, Suzanne M. O’Regan, Manoj Gambhir, and Isaac Chun-Hai FungComments to Author 
Author affiliations: University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA (J.M. Drake, S.M. O’Regan); Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA (I. Bakach, M.R. Just, I.C.-H. Fung); Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (M. Gambhir)

Main Article

Table 2

Estimated values of parameters as identified in the Ebola modeling articles*

Reference Outbreak Model R0 estimate Incubation period, d (SD)† Infectious period, d (SD)
Chowell et al. (1) DRC 1995 SEIR‡ 1.83 (SD 0.06) 5.3 (0.23) 5.61 (0.19)
Uganda 2000
 SEIR‡
 1.34 (SD 0.03)
 3.35 (0.49)
 3.5 (0.67)
Lekone and Finkenstädt (4) DRC 1995 SEIR, MCMC (vague prior) 1.383 (SD 0.127) 9.431 (0.620) 5.712 (0.548)
DRC 1995
 SEIR, MCMC (informative prior)
 1.359 (SD 0.128)
 10.11 (0.713)
 6.523 (0.564)
Legrand et al. (5) DRC 1995 Stochastic compartmental model (SEIHFR) 2.7 (95% CI 1.9–2.8)
Uganda 2000
 Stochastic compartmental model (SEIHFR)
 2.7 (95% CI 2.5–4.1)
Eichner et al. (10)
 DRC 1995
 Incubation period estimate based on parameterized lognormal distribution function
12.7 (4.31)
Ferrari et al. (11) DRC 1995 MLE 3.65 (95% CI 3.05–4.33)
DRC 1995 Regression 3.07§
Uganda 2000 MLE 1.79 (95% CI 1.52–2.30)
Uganda 2000
 Regression
 2.13§
White and Pagano (12) DRC 1995 MLE 1.93 (95% CI 1.74–2.78)

*DRC, Democratic Republic of Congo; MCMC: Markov chain Monte Carlo; MLE, maximum-likelihood estimation; SEIR, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed; SEIHFR, susceptible-exposed-infectious-hospitalized-funeral-removed. Blank cells indicate that no information was provided from the original study.
†The incubation period for Ebola virus is believed to be the same as its latent period, i.e., infected persons become infectious only when symptomatic.
‡Combination differential equation model and Markov chain model.
§Neither CIs nor SDs were provided in the study.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: July 15, 2015
Page updated: July 15, 2015
Page reviewed: July 15, 2015
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