Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

A Dynamic Transmission Model for Predicting Trends in Helicobacter pylori and Associated Diseases in the United States

Marcia F.T. Rupnow*

, Ross D. Shachter*, Douglas K. Owens*†, and Julie Parsonnet*

Author affiliations: *Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA; †Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Palo Alto, California, USA

Main Article

Figure 3

Simulated temporal change in Helicobacter pylori and associated diseases. a) Prevalence of H. pylori in the U.S. population by age category (simulation output). b) Incidence of DU and GC per 100,000 U.S. population. "Hp GC" and "Hp DU" are simulation outputs. "SEER GC" represents incidence of GC from all cases, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results report (25). "NCHS GC" represents incidence of GC from all cases, derived from the mortality statistics published by the National Cent

Figure 3. Simulated temporal change in Helicobacter pylori and associated diseases. a) Prevalence of H. pylori in the U.S. population by age category (simulation output). b) Incidence of DU and GC per 100,000 U.S. population. "Hp GC" and "Hp DU" are simulation outputs. "SEER GC" represents incidence of GC from all cases, from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results report (25). "NCHS GC" represents incidence of GC from all cases, derived from the mortality statistics published by the National Center for Health Statistics and the Bureau of the Census (28). "Kurata et al. DU" represents incidence of DU from all cases, based on data from a large health maintenance organization in Southern California (34). The simulation model predicted that the prevalence of H. pylori, as well as incidence of H. pylori-associated DU and GC, would continue to decrease in the 21st century.

Main Article

¹Specific graphs can be made available to readers upon request.

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