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Volume 6, Number 3—June 2000

Perspective

A Dynamic Transmission Model for Predicting Trends in Helicobacter pylori and Associated Diseases in the United States

Marcia F.T. Rupnow*Comments to Author , Ross D. Shachter*, Douglas K. Owens*†, and Julie Parsonnet*
Author affiliations: *Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA; †Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Palo Alto, California, USA

Main Article

Table

Input variables and sources

Symbol Description Value Explanation Source
Population parameters
µ_(a) Death rate (per person per year) Age-specific 18
Z Population size (persons) 200,000 Assumption
II Birth rate (persons per year) 2,962 Derived from disease-free
equilibrium simulation
pI Proportion (%) nonsusceptible 20 Based on data from Assumption
developing countries
Disease parameters
pC Proportion (%) of children with 5 Assumption
antrum (vs. corpus) gastritis
pY Proportion (%) of youths with 75 Based on simulation Assumption
antrum (vs. corpus) gastritis
pA Proportion (%) of adults with 95 Assumption
antrum (vs. corpus) gastritis
δ□ 1C AGC to CGC (per person per year) 0 Assumption
___δ□ 1Y AGY to CGY (per person per year) 0 Assumption
___δ□ 1A AGA to CGA (per person per year) 0.0010 1% progression in 10 yrs Assumption
δ□ 2 AGA to DU (per person per year) 0.0046 14% progression in 32 yrs 22
___δ□ 3 DU to CAG (per person per year) 0.0020 2% progression in 10 yrs 15
___δ□ 4 CGA to CAG (per person per year) 0.0112 30% progression in 32 yrs 22
___δ□ 5 CAG to GC (per person per year) 0.0030 3% progression in 10 yrs 13
___ µDU Mortality rate due to DU 0.0050 23
(per person per year)
___ µGU Mortality rate due to GU 0.0100 24
(per person per year)
___ µGC Mortality rate due to GC 0.3219 80% death in 5 yrs 25
(per person per year)

GC = Gastric cancer; DU = Duodenal ulcer; CG = Corpus-predominant gastritis; AG = Antrum-predominant gastritis; CAG = Chronic atrophic gastritis.

Main Article

1Specific graphs can be made available to readers upon request.

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