Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003
Research
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
Marianne L.L. van Genugten*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*Table 1
Assumptions made for influenza pandemic scenario analysis, the Netherlands
| Scenario | Assumptions in base case | Assumptions in sensitivity analysis |
|---|---|---|
| No intervention |
Gross attack rate of 30%; age-specific attack, hospitalization, and death rates as in regular epidemic; and healthcare utilization as in regular epidemic. |
Gross attack rate of 10% and 50%; age-specific attack rates (see Table 4); and complication rates for a) persons <64 y of age x 2 and b) persons at low risk equal to persons at high risk. |
| Influenza vaccination of
risk groups (including persons >65 y of age) and healthcare workers |
Gross attack rate of 30%; age-specific attack, hospitalization, and death rates as in regular epidemic; and vaccine efficacy 80% (<64 y of age) (13,14) and 56% (>65 y) (15) to prevent hospitalizations and deaths |
Gross attack rate of 10% and 50%; age-specific attack rates (see Table 4); complication rates for a) age group <64 y times 2 and b) persons at low risk equal to persons at high risk; influenza vaccine efficacy a) 80% for all ages and b) 40% for age group <64a and 30% for age group >65b. |
| Pneumococcal vaccination of influenza of risk groups (including persons aged >65 y) |
Gross attack rate of 30%; age-specific attack, hospitalization, and death rates as in regular epidemic; 50% pneumococcal-related hospitalizations; and vaccine efficacy 64% against invasive infections (16,17). |
Gross attack rate of 10% and 50%; age-specific attack rates (see Table 4); complication rates for a) persons <64 y of age x 2 and b) persons at low risk equal to persons at high risk; 25% and 75% pneumococcal-related hospitalizations; and vaccine efficacy 25% and 75%. |
| Therapeutic use of neuraminidase inhibitors for all patients with influenzalike illness | Gross attack rate of 30%; age-specific attack, hospitalization, and death rates as in regular epidemic; and 50% reduction of hospitalizations and deaths. | Gross attack rate of 10% and 50%; age-specific attack rates (see Table 4); complication rates for a) persons <64 y of age times 2 and b) persons at low risk equal to persons at high risk.; and 25% to 75% reduction of hospitalizations and deaths. |
aMinimum variant based (9).
bMaximum variant assumes 80% efficacy for all ages
